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Economy in Brief
U.S. Durable Goods Orders' December Gain Disappoints
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased 0.2% during December (1.4% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
German Consumer Confidence in February Is Projected Much Lower
The forward-looking GfK consumer confidence/climate gauge for February has stumbled for the fourth month in a row...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 18, 2018
Total housing starts rose 3.2% (-3.6% y/y) during November to 1.256 million (AR) from 1.217 million in October, revised from 1.228 million. The level exceeded expectations for 1.230 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 22.4% rise (21.7% y/y) in starts of multi-family units to 432,000 accounted for last month's gain in the total. It followed a 1.4% decline. Starts of single-family units fell 4.6% (-13.1% y/y) to 824,000, down for the third straight month.
Last month's increase in total starts reflected a roughly one-third improvement, both m/m and y/y, in the Northeast to 124,000 units from 90,000. Starts in the South rose 15.1% (1.3% y/y) to 687,000, an 11-year high. Countering these increases was a 19.2% decline (-12.4% y/y) in the Midwest to 156,000, which more-than-reversed the rise during October. Housing starts in the West fell 14.2% (-18.4% y/y) to 289,000, the lowest level since July.
Building permits increased 5.0% (0.4% y/y) to 1.328 million after a 0.4% slip. Single-family permits edged 0.1% higher (-1.9% y/y) to 848,000 following a 0.8% decline. Permits to build multi-family homes jumped 14.8% (4.6% y/y) to 480,000 after a 0.5% rise.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,256 | 1,217 | 1,237 | -3.6 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
Single-Family | 824 | 864 | 879 | -13.1 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
Multi-Family | 432 | 353 | 358 | 21.7 | 356 | 393 | 394 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 124 | 90 | 141 | 33.3 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
Midwest | 156 | 193 | 171 | -12.4 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
South | 687 | 597 | 568 | 1.3 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
West | 289 | 337 | 357 | -18.4 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
Building Permits | 1,328 | 1,265 | 1,270 | 0.4 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |