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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Gerald D. Cohen December 14, 2018
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in October (was +0.1%). The 0.1% gain in September output was revised from 0.2%. The Action Economics Survey forecast 0.3% growth in November. Manufacturing activity was unchanged (1.9% y/y) during November, while the two prior months were revised lower. Utilities output generated 3.3% (4.4% y/y) while mining production fired up 1.7% (13.2% y/y).
The flat reading in manufacturing belied offsets between durable goods (+0.2%; 3.7% y/y) and nondurables (-0.2%; +0.7% y/y). Durable goods production was bolstered by gains in machinery (0.5%; 6.2% y/y), motor vehicles (0.3%; 3.5% y/y), and computer output (0.2%; 5.1% y/y). Meanwhile, aerospace edged down 0.1% (+2.8% y/y). In the nondurable sector the 0.6% (+2.0% y/y) growth in chemical production was more than counterbalanced by declines in food (-0.5%; +1.1% y/y), petroleum and coal (-1.7%; -2.5% y/y), as well as printing (-1.0%; -1.7% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output edged up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in November. Meanwhile, business equipment declined 0.2% (+4.1% y/y) after strong gains in the previous three months. Construction supplies weakened 0.2% (+1.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Production of materials jumped 1.2% (+6.1% y/y) as energy materials sizzled 2.3% (11.6% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products rebounded 1.6% (7.6% y/y) after two monthly declines. This was the result of strong gains in semiconductor & electronic components (2.1%; 10.1% y/y) and computer & office equipment (2.8%; 4.4 y/y). Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors edged down 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
Capacity utilization increased to 78.5% in November, in line with the expectations from Action Economics Survey. Factory sector use edged down to 75.7%. Mining rebounded to 94.1%, near September’s business cycle high of 94.2%. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to accelerate, up a cyclical high 1.3% y/y in November.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Consumer Goods | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
Construction Supplies | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Materials | 1.2 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Utilities | 3.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 4.4 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Mining | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.5 | 78.1 | 78.4 | 77.1 | 76.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
Manufacturing | 75.7 | 75.8 | 76.0 | 75.3 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |