Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- Israel: Exports of Services (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen December 14, 2018
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in October (was +0.1%). The 0.1% gain in September output was revised from 0.2%. The Action Economics Survey forecast 0.3% growth in November. Manufacturing activity was unchanged (1.9% y/y) during November, while the two prior months were revised lower. Utilities output generated 3.3% (4.4% y/y) while mining production fired up 1.7% (13.2% y/y).
The flat reading in manufacturing belied offsets between durable goods (+0.2%; 3.7% y/y) and nondurables (-0.2%; +0.7% y/y). Durable goods production was bolstered by gains in machinery (0.5%; 6.2% y/y), motor vehicles (0.3%; 3.5% y/y), and computer output (0.2%; 5.1% y/y). Meanwhile, aerospace edged down 0.1% (+2.8% y/y). In the nondurable sector the 0.6% (+2.0% y/y) growth in chemical production was more than counterbalanced by declines in food (-0.5%; +1.1% y/y), petroleum and coal (-1.7%; -2.5% y/y), as well as printing (-1.0%; -1.7% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output edged up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in November. Meanwhile, business equipment declined 0.2% (+4.1% y/y) after strong gains in the previous three months. Construction supplies weakened 0.2% (+1.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Production of materials jumped 1.2% (+6.1% y/y) as energy materials sizzled 2.3% (11.6% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products rebounded 1.6% (7.6% y/y) after two monthly declines. This was the result of strong gains in semiconductor & electronic components (2.1%; 10.1% y/y) and computer & office equipment (2.8%; 4.4 y/y). Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors edged down 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
Capacity utilization increased to 78.5% in November, in line with the expectations from Action Economics Survey. Factory sector use edged down to 75.7%. Mining rebounded to 94.1%, near September’s business cycle high of 94.2%. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to accelerate, up a cyclical high 1.3% y/y in November.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Consumer Goods | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | -0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
Construction Supplies | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Materials | 1.2 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Utilities | 3.3 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 4.4 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Mining | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.5 | 78.1 | 78.4 | 77.1 | 76.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
Manufacturing | 75.7 | 75.8 | 76.0 | 75.3 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |