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by Tom Moeller December 14, 2018
Consumers continued to exhibit their inclination to spend as holiday shopping got underway. Total retail sales rose 0.2% during November (4.9% y/y) following a 1.1% October jump, revised from 0.8%. The latest increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales gained 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% increase, revised from 0.7%. A 0.3% improvement had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales surged 0.9% (5.2% y/y) and built on a 0.7% October gain, revised from 0.3%.
Strength in sales was notable for online retailers whose sales increased 2.3% (12.1% y/y) following two months of strong gain. Purchases at electronics & appliance stores similarly were firm as they rose 1.4% (5.0% y/y), about as they did during the prior month. Furniture & home furnishings store sales grew 1.2% (2.9% y/y) after a moderate decline. General merchandise store sales gained 0.4% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales also improved 0.4% (-7.8% y/y) following a 1.1% increase. Motor vehicle & parts dealership sales gained 0.2% (1.4% y/y) even as unit motor vehicle sales eased 0.2% m/m.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 2.3% (+8.7% y/y) after a 3.2% jump. Also working lower were clothing & accessory store sales by 0.2% (+4.1% y/y) after two months of firm increase. Building materials & garden equipment store sales also were weak. They fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) on the heels of a 1.5% strengthening.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were firm last month. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.9% (3.6% y/y) after falling for three straight months. Food & beverage store sales gained 0.4% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Eating out was less in vogue during November as restaurant & drinking establishment sales declined 0.5% after a 0.6% increase, revised up from a moderate decline. Sales have lost forward momentum, however, as the 6.9% y/y increase moderated from 10.9% y/y growth just three months earlier.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.2 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.3 | 3.2 | -1.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
