Recent Updates
- UK Regional: E.SURV HPI by Region and London Borough (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2018
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate improved to 4.5% during October from 4.4% in September, revised from 4.5%. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The hiring rate remained strong and rose to 3.9% from an unrevised 3.8%. The layoff & discharge rate held steady at 1.1%, just above the record low, and the quits rate declined to 2.3%. It was just below the record high. The JOLTS data begin in 2000.
The private-sector job openings rate held steady at 4.8%, just below the record high of 4.9%. Leisure & hospitality eased from a series high to 6.0%, while professional & business services eased to 5.5%, still up from a low of 4.1% in December. In education & health services, the rate increased to a near record 5.2%, while in construction, it rose slightly to a strong 3.7%. The rate in manufacturing strengthened to a record 3.9% and in trade, transportation & utilities, it held steady for the third month at 4.4%. The job openings rate in government declined to 2.6%, but remained up sharply versus the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings increased 1.7% in October (16.8% y/y) to 7.079 million following a 4.6% decline from the August record. Private-sector openings rose m/m and were up 17.7% y/y. Construction sector job availability surged by one-quarter y/y. Openings in leisure & hospitality strengthened by one-quarter y/y and they rose 15.1% y/y in education & health services. Trade, transportation & utilities job openings increased by one-quarter y/y as did factory sector openings. Job openings in professional business services gained an improved 13.2% y/y. Government sector job openings rose a lessened 8.5% y/y.
The private-sector hiring rate increased to 4.3% from September's 4.2%, but remained just below August's eleven-year high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality improved to 6.7%, and it has been trending higher during the last few months, but in professional & business services it held steady at a strong 5.6%. The construction sector's hiring rate declined to 4.8%, down from the January 2017 high of 5.8%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities reached a near-record 4.6%, up sharply from last year's low of 3.6%. In education & health services, the rate gained to 3.0%. In manufacturing, the rate recovered to 3.0% and made up most of the prior month's decline to a twelve-year low. The hiring rate in government edged higher to 1.6%.
Total hiring increased 3.4% (5.2% y/y) to a near-record 5.892 million, reversing the September decline. Hiring in the private sector increased 5.1% y/y with trade, transportation & utilities hiring strengthening 20.2% y/y. Factory-sector hiring rose a lessened 12.0% y/y. Educational & health services hiring increased 6.2% y/y and leisure & hospitality improved 2.7% y/y. Professional & business employment rose 3.8% y/y, down from the double-digit gains earlier in the year. Construction sector hiring fell 6.2% y/y.
The overall job separations rate eased to 3.7%, but remained near the expansion high. The private sector separations rate slipped to 4.1%, down versus its cycle high of 4.3% reached in August. The separations rate in government held steady at 1.5%.
The level of overall separations strengthened 5.4% y/y to 5.556 million. In the private sector, they were up 5.7% y/y led by a 16.7% y/y surge in trade, transportation & utilities. Leisure & hospitality job separations increased 12.6% y/y and in manufacturing, they rose 9.9% y/y. Professional & business services job separations increased 5.0% y/y. Elsewhere, job separations weakened. In the financial sector, they declined 16.4%. Separations in construction fell 8.4% y/y and education & health services separations eased 1.5% y/y. Separations in the information sector declined 16.0% y/y. Separations in the government sector gained 1.5% y/y.
The level of quits edged down 1.4% m/m (+19.0% y/y) to 3.514 million in October. The quits rate eased m/m to 2.3%, but it remained up sharply from 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quit rate rose to 2.6%, double the expansion low. The rate rose sharply in leisure & hospitality to 4.8% and in education & health services, it increased to 2.0%. Elsewhere, the quits rate eased. In the financial sector, it fell to 1.3% and in professional & business services, the rate slipped to 3.2%. In the factory sector, it held steady at 1.6% which was up from 0.6% 2009 low. The government sector quit rate remained unchanged m/m at 0.8% which was double the expansion low.
The level of layoffs declined 1.2% y/y to 1.691 million, leaving the layoff rate at 1.1%, nearly the record low. In the private sector, the layoff rate declined to 1.2%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. The professional & business services rate held steady at 1.8%, while in the information sector, it fell sharply to 0.6%. In leisure & hospitality the layoff rate remained high at 1.7% and in the factory sector, it rose to 1.0%. The government sector layoff rate rose slightly to 0.5%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'17 | Oct'16 | Oct'15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 7,079 | 6,960 | 7,293 | 6,059 | 5,485 | 5,536 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,892 | 5,696 | 5,906 | 5,600 | 5,208 | 5,310 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,691 | 1,707 | 1,790 | 1,711 | 1,610 | 1,758 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
Total (000s) | 3,514 | 3,564 | 3,648 | 3,224 | 3,093 | 2,836 |