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- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller December 6, 2018
Manufacturers' orders fell 2.1% (+6.9% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September rise, revised from 0.7%. The Action Economics Forecast survey had looked for a 2.0% decline.
Durable goods orders fell 4.3% m/m (+7.8% y/y), revised from -4.4% in the advance report, after little change in September. The decline was led by fewer orders for defense and civilian aircraft. Excluding transportation altogether, new orders for durable goods improved 0.2% (4.6% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) improved 0.3% (6.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. A 1.8% increase (24.3% y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries led the gain. Textile product shipments also rose a steady 1.8% (12.4% y/y) and apparel shipments improved 0.3% (10.9% y/y). Basic chemical shipments held steady (5.4% y/y) and food product shipments rose 0.1% (0.2% y/y). Shipments of durable goods eased 0.5% (+6.9% y/y) after 0.9% increases in each of the prior two months. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.9% (5.9% y/y) and machinery shipments increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y).
Unfilled orders from the factory sector eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Transportation sector order backlogs declined 0.3% (+4.8% y/y) and total unfilled orders less transportation rose 0.3% (4.8% y/y). Durable goods unfilled orders eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). Unfilled orders of machinery gained 0.4% (1.7% y/y) while computer & electronic order backlogs rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y).
Inventories in the manufacturing sector edged 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) after a 0.6% jump. Durable goods inventories rose just 0.1% (4.4% y/y). Machinery inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.3% y/y) while inventories of computers & electronic products fell 1.0% (+1.1% y/y), reversing the prior month's rise. Electrical equipment & appliance inventories rose 0.4% (8.3% y/y) as transportation sector inventories also increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories gained 0.2% (5.0% y/y) as petroleum refinery inventories climbed 0.5% (17.7% y/y). Basic chemical inventories jumped 0.7% (4.5% y/y) but paper product inventories slipped 0.1% (+1.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecasts survey is in AS1REPNA.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -2.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
Shipments | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |