Recent Updates
- UK Regional: E.SURV HPI by Region and London Borough (Nov)
- UK: Rightmove HPI (Jan), E.SURV HPI (Dec)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Nov)
- Brazil: Economic Activity (Nov)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 6, 2018
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) inched up to 60.7 during November from 60.3 in October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a decline to 59.2. The ISM measures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM manufacturing measure, which was released on Monday. This composite was fairly steady at 60.5 last month, but still near the highest level of the economic expansion. During the past 15 years, there has been a 71% correlation between this index and the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP.
Stability in the overall index reflected a rise in the business activity series to 65.2, equaling the expansion high. The new orders index also increased to 62.5, up from the recent low of 57.0 in July. Moving lower was the supplier delivery series, which dipped to 56.5 indicating a slight quickening of delivery speeds.
The employment index fell to 58.4 last month, still below a record 62.4 in September. A lessened 22% of respondents reported a rise in payrolls while a lower nine percent reported a decline.
Price inflation was indicated to have recovered as the prices index rebounded to 64.3 and reversed its October fall. A fairly steady 28% of respondents reported a rise in prices while a lessened five percent reported a decline.
Among the other detail indexes, which are not seasonally adjusted, the export order series declined sharply to the lowest level in six months. The import index increased m/m and has been trending higher since the middle of 2017, while the order backlog index also moved higher.
The ISM figures are available in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the SURVEYS database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Diffusion Index | 60.7 | 60.3 | 61.6 | 57.3 | 56.9 | 54.9 | 57.1 |
Business Activity | 65.2 | 62.5 | 65.2 | 61.1 | 60.1 | 58.0 | 60.8 |
New Orders | 62.5 | 61.5 | 61.6 | 58.8 | 59.3 | 57.5 | 59.2 |
Employment | 58.4 | 59.7 | 62.4 | 55.4 | 55.2 | 52.6 | 56.0 |
Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 56.5 | 57.5 | 57.0 | 54.0 | 53.2 | 51.5 | 52.5 |
Prices Index | 64.3 | 61.7 | 64.2 | 60.1 | 57.7 | 52.6 | 50.6 |