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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 30, 2018
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer surged to 66.4 during November from an unrevised 58.4 in October. It was the highest level since December and followed three consecutive months of decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 59.4. The Chicago Purchasing Managers figures are diffusion indexes where readings above 50 indicate growth.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted index with similar methodology as the ISM Composite Index. This index improved m/m to 63.1, but remained below earlier highs. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the index level and the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP.
A surge in the new orders and unfilled orders components led the improvement in the Business Barometer. The production and supplier delivery readings also rose. The latter indicated the slowest product delivery speeds since 2011. The inventories reading fell sharply to the lowest level since June.
The employment index strengthened m/m but remained below the high reached in January. During the last ten years, there has been a 79% correlation between the index level and the month-to-month change in factory sector payrolls. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of survey respondents reported higher payroll levels while 17% (NSA) indicated lessened hiring.
The index of prices paid weakened for the fourth consecutive month. The reading of 73.2 was the lowest level since May and down from July's 82.1. A greatly lessened 44% of respondents reported higher prices while a steady four percent reported price declines. These figures are NSA.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Neutral-Interest-Rate World is the title of today's speech by John C. Williams, President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It is available here.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 66.4 | 58.4 | 60.4 | 65.6 | 60.8 | 53.1 | 50.3 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 63.1 | 59.7 | 58.9 | 64.3 | 59.0 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
Production | 65.2 | 59.8 | 58.8 | 70.3 | 64.3 | 54.7 | 52.5 |
New Orders | 72.5 | 57.9 | 61.4 | 67.9 | 63.5 | 55.7 | 50.4 |
Order Backlogs | 62.9 | 51.2 | 61.9 | 58.2 | 55.2 | 47.2 | 44.4 |
Inventories | 53.7 | 60.2 | 60.6 | 59.1 | 54.9 | 47.2 | 52.1 |
Employment | 55.4 | 52.5 | 51.1 | 56.4 | 52.9 | 49.4 | 50.3 |
Supplier Deliveries | 68.7 | 68.3 | 62.5 | 68.0 | 59.4 | 52.8 | 52.6 |
Prices Paid | 73.2 | 75.1 | 79.9 | 68.9 | 64.0 | 53.2 | 46.8 |