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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 29, 2018
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales during October declined 2.6% to the lowest level since July 2014. Sales were off 6.7% y/y and the fall reversed a little-revised September rise. The index level fell to 102.1 in October (2001=100) which was 9.6% below the peak in April 2016.
The decline in pending home sales was paced by an 8.9% fall (-15.3% y/y) in the West to the lowest level since September 2007. Pending home sales in the Midwest declined 1.8% (-4.9% y/y) to the weakest level in six months. In the South, pending home sales fell 1.1% (-4.6% y/y) and were at the lowest level since September of last year. Increasing by 0.7% (-2.9% y/y) were pending home sales in the Northeast. They remained 8.2% below the February 2017 high.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 102.1 | 104.8 | 104.1 | -6.7 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
Northeast | 92.9 | 92.3 | 92.7 | -2.9 | 97.2 | 96.4 | 90.8 |
Midwest | 100.4 | 102.2 | 101.2 | -4.9 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 107.1 |
South | 118.9 | 120.2 | 121.3 | -4.6 | 123.8 | 122.9 | 123.1 |
West | 84.8 | 93.1 | 89.1 | -15.3 | 99.6 | 102.4 | 102.2 |