Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Service Sector Survey, Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen November 29, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 234,000 (-2.1% y/y) during the week ended November 24 from an unrevised 224,000 in the previous week. This is the highest number of initial claims since mid-May, though claims still remain very low by historical standards. While the data is adjusted for seasonal factors, the Thanksgiving holiday may have affected this reading. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 223,250, a four-month high.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 50,000 to 1.710 million (-12.1% y/y) in the week ending November 17, from the slightly downwardly revised 1.660 million in the prior week. This is the highest reading since late August. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1,667,750.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2%. It had declined to a record low 1.1% for a brief period in October. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending November 10, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Nebraska (0.34%), North Dakota (0.41%), North Carolina (0.42%) and Tennessee (0.47%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.46%), Connecticut (1.60%), California (1.61%), New Jersey (2.03%), and Alaska (2.64%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.86% in Texas, 0.49% in Florida and 1.26% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/24/18 | 11/17/18 | 11/10/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 234 | 224 | 221 | -2.1 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,710 | 1,660 | -12.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |