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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drag Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 26, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index increased to 0.24 during October from 0.14 in September. The three-month moving average was fairly steady at 0.31. During the last ten years, there has been a 64% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Improvement in the October index was led by the Employment, Unemployment & Hours series to 0.19, its highest level since February. The Production & Income reading eased to 0.06 and has been trending lower since the Spring. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure held steady at 0.04 and remained down following an August jump. The Personal Consumption & Housing indicator eased to -0.05 and has been down since an upward spike in March.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (percent) | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 0.13 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.31 | -- | -- | -- |
Production & Income | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 0.05 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.00 | -0.04 |