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Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
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German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 16, 2018
Industrial production rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September improvement, revised from 0.3%. The 0.8% gain in August output was revised from 0.4%. October's rise was the smallest since a decline in May. A 0.2% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Survey. Manufacturing activity increased 0.3% (2.7% y/y) during October, the same as in September which was revised from 0.2%. Utilities output fell 0.5% (+1.7% y/y) after a 0.1% easing while mining production fell 0.3% (+13.2% y/y) following a 0.1% slip.
The rise in manufacturing output was held back by a 2.8% decline (+2.1% y/y) in motor vehicles and parts output which followed two months of firm growth. Furniture & related product production gained 0.7% (1.8% y/y) and recouped the prior month's decline. Computer, video and audio product production held steady (-0.7% y/y) after declining for two months.
Production of nondurable goods improved 0.2% (1.8% y/y) as paper output rebounded 0.9% (1.4% y/y) following two months of decline. Chemical production improved 0.3% (2.7% y/y) after falling 0.4%. Offsetting these gains, petroleum & coal product output worked 1.1% lower after two months of moderate increase, and was unchanged y/y. Apparel production fell 1.9% (-4.4% y/y), the fifth sharp decline in the last six months.
Business equipment production strengthened 0.8% (4.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Industrial & other equipment production jumped 1.7% (4.5% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Information processing equipment production improved 0.6% (4.5% y/y) following no change during September. Transit equipment output fell 0.9% (3.0% y/y) after two months of strong increase.
Finally, construction supplies output rebounded 0.6% (2.9% y/y) and recovered the prior month's decline. Production of materials eased 0.1% (+6.1% y/y) as energy materials output fell 0.5% (+10.2% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products held steady (5.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Semiconductor & electronic component production fell 0.8% (-0.7 y/y). Computer & peripheral production rebounded 2.8% (6.8% y/y) following three months of sharp decline. Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors improved 0.5% (2.7% y/y). That followed 0.2% increases in three of the prior four months.
Capacity utilization eased to 78.4% but remained up from a 75.0% low touched in November 2016. Factory sector utilization inched up to 76.2%, but mining sector utilization eased to 92.7%. Capacity in the manufacturing sector increased 1.2% y/y after last year's 1.0% rise.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Consumer Goods | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
Construction Supplies | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Materials | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Utilities | -0.5 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Mining | -0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 13.2 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.4 | 78.5 | 78.5 | 76.8 | 76.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
Manufacturing | 76.2 | 76.1 | 75.9 | 75.2 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |