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- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 15, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.5% August rise. Total business sales increased 0.4% (6.6% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.34. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories nudged 0.1% higher (3.1% y/y) in September, following two months of 0.6% increase. Auto inventories improved 0.4% (6.2% y/y) following two months of much stronger gain. Non-auto retail inventories eased for a second month (+1.5% y/y). General merchandise inventories also slipped 0.1% (+0.5% y/y) and offset the August rise. In the department store sector, inventories improved 0.3% (-1.7% y/y) after three months of decline. Building materials inventories held steady (6.7% y/y) after a 0.6% fall, while clothing store inventories were off 0.9% (-5.1% y/y). Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances strengthened 0.7% (-2.6% y/y) after a 1.3% rise. As reported earlier, wholesale inventories rose 0.4% (5.2% y/y) following a 0.9% increase. Factory sector inventories gained 0.5% (4.8% y/y) after a 0.1% improvement.
Retail sales increased 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in September after a 0.1% dip. Non-auto sales also rose 0.2% (5.1% y/y) following a 0.1% gain. Wholesale sector sales improved 0.2% (7.8% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Shipments from the factory sector strengthened 0.9% (7.9% y/y) following the 0.7% August gain.
The overall business inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held at 1.34 in September. The retail sector ratio also held steady at 1.44, but remained down sharply from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio also was unchanged at 1.18, its lowest level since early-2012. The ratio peaked at 1.29 early in 2016. The wholesale sector I/S ratio also held steady m/m at 1.26 for the third straight month. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio slipped to 1.33 and remained near the three-year low.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |