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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone, CBE November 15, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 216,000 (-13.6% y/y) during the week ended November 10 from 214,000 in the previous week, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 213,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 215,250 stands above the low of 206,000 in mid-September.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.676 million (-11.3% y/y) in the week ending November 3 from 1.630 million in the prior week, which was revised from 1.623 million. This is the highest level of continuing claims since September 1. The four-week moving average of claimants climbed to 1.644 million from 1.635 million.
The insured rate of unemployment inched back up to 1.2% after sitting at the record low of 1.1% for three weeks. These data extend back to 1971. Prior to September 2016, the record low had been 1.6% in 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 27, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), North Dakota (0.31%) and Nebraska (0.33%), with Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah all at 0.46%. The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.42%), Connecticut (1.56%), California (1.64%), New Jersey (1.88%) and Alaska (2.20%). Among the other largest states by population, the rates were 1.16% in New York, 1.26% in Illinois, 0.85% in Texas and 0.48% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/10/18 | 11/03/18 | 10/27/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 216 | 214 | 215 | -13.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,676 | 1,630 | -11.3 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |