Recent Updates
- New Zealand: NZIER Business Opinion Survey (Q1)
- US: Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions, Survey of Consumer Expectations (Mar)
- Kazakhstan: Export/Import Prices (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $100.5 billion budget deficit during October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The deficit compared to a shortfall of $63.2 billion during October 2017. A $122 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues increased 7.4% y/y, led by a surge in corporate income tax receipts. Individual income taxes increased 0.8% y/y, compared to a 6.1% rise during all of FY'17. Social insurance receipts rose 3.0% y/y following last year's 0.8% gain, and excise taxes nearly doubled y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 18.3% y/y after two years of modest growth. National defense spending rose 11.1% y/y after a 5.3% gain last year. Health insurance spending increased 5.0% y/y while Medicare outlays roughly doubled y/y. Growth in income security payments surged. Social Security payments rose a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments increased by 12.4% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Receipt & outlay figures often are quite variable y/y near the start of a new fiscal year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-100.5 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 7.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 214.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 97.2 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 107.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 41.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 102.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.0 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 12.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
