Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $100.5 billion budget deficit during October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The deficit compared to a shortfall of $63.2 billion during October 2017. A $122 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues increased 7.4% y/y, led by a surge in corporate income tax receipts. Individual income taxes increased 0.8% y/y, compared to a 6.1% rise during all of FY'17. Social insurance receipts rose 3.0% y/y following last year's 0.8% gain, and excise taxes nearly doubled y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 18.3% y/y after two years of modest growth. National defense spending rose 11.1% y/y after a 5.3% gain last year. Health insurance spending increased 5.0% y/y while Medicare outlays roughly doubled y/y. Growth in income security payments surged. Social Security payments rose a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments increased by 12.4% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Receipt & outlay figures often are quite variable y/y near the start of a new fiscal year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-100.5 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 7.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 214.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 97.2 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 107.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 41.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 102.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.0 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 12.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
