Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $100.5 billion budget deficit during October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The deficit compared to a shortfall of $63.2 billion during October 2017. A $122 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues increased 7.4% y/y, led by a surge in corporate income tax receipts. Individual income taxes increased 0.8% y/y, compared to a 6.1% rise during all of FY'17. Social insurance receipts rose 3.0% y/y following last year's 0.8% gain, and excise taxes nearly doubled y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 18.3% y/y after two years of modest growth. National defense spending rose 11.1% y/y after a 5.3% gain last year. Health insurance spending increased 5.0% y/y while Medicare outlays roughly doubled y/y. Growth in income security payments surged. Social Security payments rose a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments increased by 12.4% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Receipt & outlay figures often are quite variable y/y near the start of a new fiscal year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-100.5 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 7.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 214.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 97.2 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
National Defense | 16 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
Health | 13 | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
Medicare | 14 | 107.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 41.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
Social Security | 24 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 102.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.0 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
Interest | 8 | 12.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |