Recent Updates
- Australia: NAB Business Survey (Dec)
- Australia: NAB Business Survey by State (Dec)
- Japan: Services Producer Price Index (Dec)
- US: New Residential Sales (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
IFO Expectations Are Set Back in January
IFO expectations dropped to -5.2 in January from -3.1 in December when presented in its diffusion format...
Kansas City Fed Factory Index Moves Toward Breakeven; Expectations Rise
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing business activity improved to -1 in January...
EMU PMI- Thin Gruel for Progress; Will the Coronavirus Trump the Outlook for 2020?
The flash composites show some improvement this month- but not much of it...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Eases
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined 0.3% during December...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise; Total Claimant Level Falls
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 to 211,000 during the week ended January 18...
Special Topics
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $100.5 billion budget deficit during October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The deficit compared to a shortfall of $63.2 billion during October 2017. A $122 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues increased 7.4% y/y, led by a surge in corporate income tax receipts. Individual income taxes increased 0.8% y/y, compared to a 6.1% rise during all of FY'17. Social insurance receipts rose 3.0% y/y following last year's 0.8% gain, and excise taxes nearly doubled y/y after last year's 13.3% increase.
Government spending increased 18.3% y/y after two years of modest growth. National defense spending rose 11.1% y/y after a 5.3% gain last year. Health insurance spending increased 5.0% y/y while Medicare outlays roughly doubled y/y. Growth in income security payments surged. Social Security payments rose a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments increased by 12.4% y/y with the larger budget deficit.
Receipt & outlay figures often are quite variable y/y near the start of a new fiscal year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-100.5 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 7.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 214.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 97.2 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.0 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 107.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 41.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 102.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 5.0 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 12.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
