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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 8, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously at today's meeting to maintain the federal funds rate target in a range between 2.00% and 2.25%. The action was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The Fed indicated that "further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity."
As indicated at the last meeting, the FOMC noted "that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate." Meanwhile, "overall inflation and inflation less food & energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance." In a change from earlier commentary, it was noted that business fixed investment growth had moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.
Consumer price inflation, both overall and excluding food & energy, continued to be seen at 2% through 2021. Longer-term inflation expectations were seen as steady.
The Fed continued to indicate that "risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced."
Updated economic projections were not offered at this meeting. Projections available at the September meeting included real GDP growth of 3.1% this year, 2.5% in 2019, 2.0% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021, respectively. The expected core PCE inflation was 2.0% this year, then 2.1% thereafter. The civilian unemployment was seen at 3.7% this year, followed by 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, then 3.7% in 2021.
The press release for today's FOMC meeting can be found here.
The Action Economics Forecast Survey can be found in the AS1REPNA database. Haver's SURVEYS database contains the economic projections from the FOMC.
Current | Last | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate Target | 2.00% - 2.25% | 2.00% - 2.25% | 1.00% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.09% |