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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 8, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously at today's meeting to maintain the federal funds rate target in a range between 2.00% and 2.25%. The action was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The Fed indicated that "further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity."
As indicated at the last meeting, the FOMC noted "that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate." Meanwhile, "overall inflation and inflation less food & energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance." In a change from earlier commentary, it was noted that business fixed investment growth had moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year.
Consumer price inflation, both overall and excluding food & energy, continued to be seen at 2% through 2021. Longer-term inflation expectations were seen as steady.
The Fed continued to indicate that "risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced."
Updated economic projections were not offered at this meeting. Projections available at the September meeting included real GDP growth of 3.1% this year, 2.5% in 2019, 2.0% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021, respectively. The expected core PCE inflation was 2.0% this year, then 2.1% thereafter. The civilian unemployment was seen at 3.7% this year, followed by 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, then 3.7% in 2021.
The press release for today's FOMC meeting can be found here.
The Action Economics Forecast Survey can be found in the AS1REPNA database. Haver's SURVEYS database contains the economic projections from the FOMC.
Current | Last | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal Funds Rate Target | 2.00% - 2.25% | 2.00% - 2.25% | 1.00% | 0.40% | 0.13% | 0.09% |