Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Feb-final), Chicago PMI (Feb),Personal Income, Adv Trade & Inventories (Jan)
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Economy in Brief
Chicago Business Barometer Declines Sharply in February
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 4.3 points in February to 59.5...
Goods Trade Deficit Widened Slightly in January
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly to $83.74 billion in January..
Japan's Industrial Sector Mounts a Comeback
Japan's IP surged in January gaining 4.3% compared to December...
Aircraft Orders Boost U.S. Durable Goods Orders in January
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased a much larger-than-expected 3.4% m/m (4.5% y/y) in January...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Increases Again in February
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to 24 in February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 7, 2018
Consumer credit outstanding increased $10.93 billion (4.8% y/y) during September following a $22.88 billion August increase, revised from $20.07 billion. A $16.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $11.23 billion (5.2% y/y) during September. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose a weaker 8.3% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 3.7% y/y but finance company balances (18% of the total) fell 1.1% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) rose a greatly strengthened 11.7% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances eased $0.31 billion in September (+3.7% y/y). Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) rose a lessened 6.1% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) rose a weaker 7.8% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell a steady 9.9% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) weakened 4.0% y/y.
Student loans rose a steady 5.6% y/y during Q3'18 while motor vehicle borrowing gained a stronger 3.7% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $10.93 bil. | $22.88 bil. | $17.45 bil. | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% |
Nonrevolving | 11.23 | 18.26 | 16.32 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 7.7 |
Revolving | -0.31 | 4.61 | 1.15 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.4 |