Recent Updates
- Slovenia: Building Permits (Dec)
- UK: PPI, CPI (Dec), SPPI (Q4)
- Georgia: Trade by Country (Dec)
- China Regional: Beijing Retail Sales (Dec)
- Palestine: WPI (Q4-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 6, 2018
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate fell to 4.5% in September from the record of 4.7% in August, revised from 4.6%. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The hiring rate slipped to 3.8% from 4.0%, revised from 3.9%, but remained up from the recession low of 2.8% in 2009. The layoff & discharge rate slipped to 1.1%, nearly the record low, and the quits rate held at 2.4% for the third month, just below the record high. The JOLTS data begin in 2000.
The private-sector job openings rate eased to 4.8% from the record 4.9%. Leisure & hospitality strengthened to a series high of 6.0%, while professional & business services eased to 5.6% from the three-year high of 6.1%. In education & health services, the share increased to a near record 5.2%, while in construction, it slipped to a still strong 3.7%. The rate in manufacturing slipped to a firm 3.7% and in trade, transportation & utilities, it held steady a 4.4%. The job openings rate in government declined sharply to 2.6%, but remained up sharply versus the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings declined 3.9% (+12.5% y/y) to 7.009 million and reversed the August rise to a record 7.293 million. Private-sector openings slipped m/m but remained up 11.9% y/y. Construction sector job availability surged by one-half y/y. Openings in leisure & hospitality strengthened by one-third y/y and they rose 15.7% y/y in education & health services. Trade, transportation & utilities job openings increased 11.7% y/y. Factory sector openings rose 8.8% y/y while openings in professional business services gained a reduced 2.8% y/y. Government sector job openings increased a lessened 19.7% y/y.
The private-sector hiring rate fell to 4.2% in September from August's eleven-year high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality improved to 6.6%, but in professional & business services, it slipped to 5.7%. The construction sector's hiring rate held firm at 5.1%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities declined to 4.2% after surging to a 12-year high of 4.4% in August. In education & health services, the rate gained to 3.1%, but in manufacturing it fell sharply to 2.6%, a 12-month low. The hiring rate in government held steady at 1.6%.
Total hiring declined 2.7% (+6.9% y/y) to 5.744 million and reversed the August gain. Hiring in the private sector increased 7.2% y/y with educational & health services surging 14.3% y/y. Trade, transportation & utilities hiring strengthened 11.4% and leisure & hospitality improved 8.1% y/y. Professional & business employment increased 2.9% y/y, but factory-sector hiring declined 1.2% y/y. Construction sector jobs also fell 3.4% y/y.
The overall job separations rate eased to 3.8% from an upwardly revised 3.9% in August, but remained near its twelve-year high. The private sector separations rate fell to 4.2% from its cycle high of 4.3%. The separations rate in government slipped to 1.5%.
The level of overall separations strengthened 6.0% y/y to 5.667 million. In the private sector, they were up 6.7% y/y led by a 17.1 y/y surge in trade, transportation & utilities and a 13.8% y/y rise in educational & health services. In the financial sector, they jumped 10.8%. Separations increased 6.1% y/y in leisure & hospitality, while in professional & business services, they edged up 1.5% y/y. Meanwhile, construction separations fell 9.4% y/y and education & health services inched down 0.3% y/y. Separations in the factory sector eased 0.9% y/y, while in the information sector they declined 17.2% y/y. Separations in the government sector gained 8.0% y/y.
The level of quits edged down 1.3% m/m (+10.6% y/y) to 3.601 million in September while the quits rate held steady at July's record of 2.4%. The private-sector quit rate also was unchanged at 2.7%. The rate fell sharply in the financial sector to 1.4% and in professional & business services the rate held steady at 3.3%. The government sector quit rate eased to 0.7%.
The level of layoffs declined 3.6% to 1.700 million, lowering the layoff rate to 1.1%, nearly the record low. In the private sector, the layoff rate held steady at 1.3%. The professional & business services rate fell to 1.9%, while in the factory sector, it eased to 0.7%. The government sector layoff rate slipped to 0.5%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'17 | Sep'16 | Sep'15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 7,009 | 7,293 | 7,077 | 6,229 | 5,650 | 5,367 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,744 | 5,906 | 5,713 | 5,375 | 5,255 | 5,147 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Total (000s) | 1,700 | 1,790 | 1,622 | 1,764 | 1,527 | 1,879 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
Total (000s) | 3,601 | 3,648 | 3,608 | 3,173 | 3,161 | 2,926 |