Recent Updates
- Bosnia: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Turkey: Electricity Production and Demand (May)
- France: HH Consumption of Manufactured Goods (May)
- Turkey: Electricity Statistics (May)
- Germany: Import & Export Prices (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen November 2, 2018
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened further to $54.02 billion in September from a slightly upwardly revised $53.31 billion in August. This was the largest deficit since February. A deficit of $53.4 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Though exports and imports both increased 1.5% month-on-month (7.2% and 9.8% year-over-year respectively) in September, the trade deficit widened because the U.S. imports 25% more than it exports.
The deficit in goods trade increased to $77.2 billion from $76.6 billion in August. Exports of goods rose 2.1% m/m (8.5% y/y) following three consecutive monthly declines. A 6.3% jump in the volatile industrial supplies – which includes petroleum exports – led the overall gain in exports. Both the quantity and price of oil exports increased. Exports of non-auto capital goods grew 2.3% and autos were up 1.3%. Meanwhile, foods, feeds and beverages exports dropped 8.0%.
Imports of goods rose 1.6% (11.4% y/y) in September, the fifth consecutive monthly gain. Non-auto capital and consumer goods imports grew 4.1% and 3.7% respectively. Meanwhile auto imports weakened 1.9% and foods, feeds and beverages were down 1.3%. Petroleum imports decreased 1.4% predominantly driven by a decline in the quantity of petroleum imports.
The surplus on services trade edged down to $23.2 billion in September from $23.3 billion. Services exports increased 0.4% m/m (4.5% y/y). Imports of services rose 0.8% (2.9% y/y).
The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade balance widened to $87.0 billion (chain weighted 2012$) in September from $86.3 billion in August. This data is consistent with last week’s third quarter GDP report in which the trade balance subtracted 1.8 percentage points.
The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China jumped to $37.4 billion (seasonally adjusted) in September. This is the largest deficit recorded outside of the port-strike related $40.5 billion reading in March 2015. U.S. exports to China rebounded 4.4% (-10.9% y/y) after an 11.3% drop in August. Imports jumped 7.8% (12.5% y/y) following a 2.1% decline.
The international trade data as well as oil prices can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in AS1REPNA.
Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current $) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | 54.02 | 53.31 | 50.04 | 44.41 (9/17) |
552.28 | 502.00 | 498.53 |
Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | 1.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 7.2 | 6.1 | -2.2 | -4.6 |
Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 9.8 | 6.8 | -1.7 | -3.5 |
Petroleum (% Chg) | -1.4 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 38.7 | 27.2 | -19.5 | -45.5 |
Nonpetroleum Goods (% Chg) | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | -1.2 | 2.2 |