Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Construction (Dec)
- Euro area: Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (Jan)
- US: Philadelphia FRB Mfg Business Outlook Survey (Jan)
- Russia: External Debt Estimate (Q4)
- Slovakia: Balance of Payments (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel October 30, 2018
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity, like the state job numbers, suggest that September saw some slowing in the pace of growth in large portions of the nation. 10 states are reported to have experienced declines in activity in the month (albeit, in numbers of cases, extremely small). Only 5 states saw increases of more than .5 percent. While monthly changes can be erratic, over the last 3 months 5 states (Maine, Vermont, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Hawaii) clocked declines. 16 states did see gains of more than 1 percent over this period, but this count is down from the number shown in the preliminary August report. South Carolina was one of those strong states, which suggests that Florence did not have that sharp a negative impact there. However, North Carolina, not surprisingly, was a state that reported a decline from August to September, and its growth over the last three months has been meager.
Over the last year 10 states, largely but not exclusively in the western half of the nation, grew more than 4 percent (and California and Florida both had 3.99 percent gains). Maine had the smallest increase, of 1.35 percent. So the overall picture remains one of decent, widespread, advances in activity. Still, September is the second consecutive month where the latest numbers in this series are a bit less ebullient.