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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes
by Charles Steindel  October 30, 2018

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity, like the state job numbers, suggest that September saw some slowing in the pace of growth in large portions of the nation. 10 states are reported to have experienced declines in activity in the month (albeit, in numbers of cases, extremely small). Only 5 states saw increases of more than .5 percent. While monthly changes can be erratic, over the last 3 months 5 states (Maine, Vermont, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Hawaii) clocked declines. 16 states did see gains of more than 1 percent over this period, but this count is down from the number shown in the preliminary August report. South Carolina was one of those strong states, which suggests that Florence did not have that sharp a negative impact there. However, North Carolina, not surprisingly, was a state that reported a decline from August to September, and its growth over the last three months has been meager.

Over the last year 10 states, largely but not exclusively in the western half of the nation, grew more than 4 percent (and California and Florida both had 3.99 percent gains). Maine had the smallest increase, of 1.35 percent. So the overall picture remains one of decent, widespread, advances in activity. Still, September is the second consecutive month where the latest numbers in this series are a bit less ebullient.

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