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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2018
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during FY'18, the federal government ran a $779.0 billion budget versus a $665.8 billion deficit in FY'17. It was the largest deficit since 2012 and amounted to 3.9% of GDP, up from 3.5% in FY'17. For the month of September the federal government actually ran a $119.1 billion surplus, which made little dent in the annual figure. A $78 billion September surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Net revenues increased 0.4% y/y in FY'18 after a 1.5% rise in FY'17. The gain was held back by a roughly one-third decline in corporate income tax receipts, due to the recently enacted tax cut, following last fiscal year's 0.8% decline. Individual income taxes increased 6.1% y/y as employment continued to improve, compared to a 2.7% rise during all of FY'17. Social insurance receipts rose 0.8% y/y following last year's 4.2% rise, and excise taxes improved 14.3% y/y after last year's 11.8% decline.
Government spending increased 3.2% y/y in FY'18, about the same as FY'17. National defense spending rose 5.3% y/y after a 6.1% rise. Health insurance spending increased 3.3% following a 1.9% shortfall. Medicare outlays declined 1.4% y/y following a negligible increase in FY'17. Growth in income security payments declined 1.6% y/y with rising job levels. Social Security payments rose an accelerated 4.5% y/y. Interest payments increased by roughly one-quarter y/y with the larger deficit.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 |
As a percent of GDP | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.4 | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% |
Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 |
Corporate Income Taxes | -- | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 14.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
National Defense | 16 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 |
Health | 13 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 |
Medicare | 14 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 |
Income Security | 12 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 |
Social Security | 24 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 |
Interest | 8 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 |