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Economy in Brief
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U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2018
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.1% August gain. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales eased 0.1% last month (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% increase had been expected. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales increased 0.5% in September (4.9% y/y) after little change during the prior month.
Weakness in sales last month was most pronounced at restaurant & drinking establishments where purchases weakened 1.8% (+7.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Elsewhere, patterns amongst sales categories were mixed. Purchases at nonstore retailers strengthened 1.1% (11.4% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Sales of furniture & home furnishings stores also improved 1.1% (4.3% y/y) and offset a 0.8% decline in the prior month. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.9% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales rose 0.7% (-3.8% y/y) after five consecutive months of decline.
Posting lesser increases were apparel & accessory store sales which rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) after a 2.8% decline. General merchandise store sales gained 0.3% (3.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Building materials & garden equipment store sales inched 0.1% higher (1.5% y/y) after a 0.8% increase. Moving lower by 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) were gasoline service station sales following a 1.1% rise.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverages store sales gained 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Health & personal care product store sales declined 0.3% (+4.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
Excluding Autos | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
Retail Sales | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
Gasoline Stations | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -1.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |