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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE October 11, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 214,000 (-11.2% y/y) during the week ended October 6 from 207,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a smaller increase to 210,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 209,500, up from the prior week's 207,000.
In the week ending September 29, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 4,000 to 1.660 million (-13.3% y/y) from 1.656 million a week earlier; that earlier number was revised up by 6,000. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1,656,000. This is the lowest four-week average since August 18, 1973 -- just over 45 years ago -- when it was 1,646,750.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended September 15, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.302%), North Dakota (0.32%), Indiana (0.42%), North Carolina (0.43%) and New Hampshire (0.45%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.51%), Connecticut (1.61%), California (1.68%), Alaska (1.82%), and New Jersey (1.87%). Among other of the largest states by population, the rate was 1.15% in New York, 0.93% in Texas and 0.47% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/06/18 | 09/29/18 | 09/22/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 214 | 207 | 215 | -11.2 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,660 | 1,656 | -13.3 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |