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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Intensifies
by Tom Moeller  October 5, 2018

Consumer credit outstanding increased $20.07 billion (4.7% y/y) during August after a $16.60 billion July rise, revised from $16.65 billion. It was the strongest gain in three months. A $15.0 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.

Nonrevolving credit usage improved $15.23 billion (4.8% y/y) during August, about as it did in July. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.4% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 3.6% y/y and finance company balances (18% of the total) fell 1.6% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) strengthened 9.5% y/y.

Revolving consumer credit balances gained $4.84 billion in August (4.4% y/y), the strongest increase in three months. Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) increased 6.8% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) strengthened 8.5% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell 8.2% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) weakened 4.0% y/y.

These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.

Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) Aug Jul Jun Aug Y/Y 2017 2016 2015
Total $20.07 bil. $16.60 bil. $5.48 bil. 4.7% 5.1% 6.7% 7.1%
   Nonrevolving 15.23 15.22 6.21 4.8 4.8 6.7 7.7
   Revolving 4.84 1.37 -0.73 4.4 6.1 6.8 5.4
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