Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller October 5, 2018
Consumer credit outstanding increased $20.07 billion (4.7% y/y) during August after a $16.60 billion July rise, revised from $16.65 billion. It was the strongest gain in three months. A $15.0 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage improved $15.23 billion (4.8% y/y) during August, about as it did in July. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.4% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 3.6% y/y and finance company balances (18% of the total) fell 1.6% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) strengthened 9.5% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances gained $4.84 billion in August (4.4% y/y), the strongest increase in three months. Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) increased 6.8% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) strengthened 8.5% y/y. Finance company balances (2% of the total) fell 8.2% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) weakened 4.0% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $20.07 bil. | $16.60 bil. | $5.48 bil. | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% |
Nonrevolving | 15.23 | 15.22 | 6.21 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 7.7 |
Revolving | 4.84 | 1.37 | -0.73 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.4 |