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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes
by Charles Steindel  September 28, 2018

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity show that all states have grown over the last 12 months. As was noticed for the job numbers, there are some signs of convergence in growth over that period. Only 5 states reported gains of less than 2 percent, with the lowest Arkansas' 1.3 percent (the national figures was 2.9 percent). New Mexico, at 5.9 percent, clocked the biggest gain, and most of the other states reporting increases above 4 percent also located in the West. Along with Arkansas, the more slowly growing states were generally concentrated in or near the lower Mississippi Valley (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas—but Maryland was also in the group).

More recently (the last 3 months), 4 states have seen declines in activity: Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, and Maine, and 7 other states had meager gains of .5 percent or lower. Nearly half the states, though, experienced quite solid gains of 1 percent or higher, with Montana seeing an increase as high as its mountains (2.8 percent).

The general picture then seems to be one of fairly widespread growth, though that is at longer horizons. There is a bit of froth in the higher frequency numbers.

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