Recent Updates
- US: Business Employment Dynamics (Q2), Advance Durable Goods (Dec)
- Lebanon: Public Debt (Nov-Prelim)
- Serbia: New Business Loans (Dec)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (Jan)
- France: Registered Unemployment and Vacancies (Dec), Monthly Household
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.39 per gallon (-4.5% y/y) in the week ended January 25...
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The CBI U.K. retail volume survey shows dramatically weakened data for January and for the February outlook...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 24, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index fell to 28.1 during September, the lowest level in four months. Despite its recent sideways movement, the index remained up y/y.
Movement amongst the sub-series was mostly negative last month. The production, shipments, new and unfilled orders readings weakened significantly. The delivery times index declined sharply and showed the quickest product delivery speeds in six months. The capital expenditures reading cratered m/m to the lowest level since November.
On the labor front, employment reversed its recent improvement with a decline to the lowest level in six months. The workweek also weakened to a six-month low. Remaining strong was the wages & benefits figure, which stayed near the highest level since January 2007.
The index for finished goods prices received added to its recent declines and fell to the lowest point since August 2017. The raw materials price measure also weakened to a four-month low.
The index of expected business conditions in six months improved m/m, but movement amongst the sub-series was mixed. Expected production, shipments and, new orders growth eased, but the unfilled orders reading improved. The future capital expenditures reading eased slightly, but remained elevated.
The future employment reading fell slightly from the highest level since January. Future hours worked held steady, but were down sharply from its high twelve months ago. Future wages & benefits surged to the highest reading since 2004.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 28.1 | 30.9 | 32.3 | 21.7 | 20.6 | -8.9 | -12.5 |
Production | 23.3 | 29.3 | 29.4 | 20.4 | 20.2 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 11.5 | 19.9 | 17.0 | 11.5 | 11.4 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Employment | 17.7 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 16.7 | 11.4 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 33.0 | 33.4 | 32.4 | 26.8 | 22.2 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 13.6 | 15.3 | 22.9 | 18.1 | 12.7 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 38.0 | 34.7 | 36.2 | 33.9 | 34.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 43.7 | 46.6 | 50.6 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 37.2 | 40.4 | 35.1 | 35.6 | 37.7 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Employment | 39.4 | 42.2 | 39.9 | 41.2 | 35.2 | 16.8 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 57.4 | 45.5 | 53.2 | 39.7 | 43.4 | 34.8 | 33.2 |