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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
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State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller September 14, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (4.3% y/y) during July following a 0.1% June rise. It was the strongest increase since February. Total business sales increased 0.2% (8.1% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.34 from 1.33. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories increased 0.5% (2.3% y/y) in July, following a 0.1% dip. Auto inventories jumped 1.2% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.1% easing. Non-auto retail inventories increased 0.1% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. General merchandise inventories rose 0.3% (0.2% y/y) after a 0.4% fall. In the department store sector, inventories declined 0.6% (-3.0% y/y) following a 0.7% fall. Building materials inventories rose 0.7% (7.4% y/y) after a 1.4% jump, but clothing store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.8% y/y), down for the fifth straight month. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances recovered 1.2% (-0.9% y/y) after declining for five of six months this year. As reported earlier, wholesale inventories rose 0.6% (5.0% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. Factory sector inventories surged 0.8% (5.6% y/y) following two months of 0.2% gain.
Retail sales rose 0.5% (6.2% y/y) in July after a 0.1% improvement. Non-auto sales strengthened 0.7% (7.2% y/y) after a 0.1% gain. Wholesale sector sales eased (+9.8% y/y) for a second straight month. Shipments from the factory sector held steady (8.1% y/y) following two months of strong growth.
As the overall business inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio rose to 1.34 in July, the retail sector ratio held steady at 1.43, down sharply from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio also was steady at 1.19, its lowest level since early-2012. The ratio peaked at 1.29 early in 2016. The wholesale sector I/S ratio rose slightly to 1.26. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio inched higher to 1.35, but remained near the three-year low.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.0 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 9.8 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |