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Economy in Brief
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The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
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U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 14, 2018
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (6.6% y/y) during August following a 0.7% July gain, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.3% (7.3% y/y) after a 0.9% rise, revised from 0.6%. A 0.5% gain had been expected. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales increased 0.1% in August (5.3% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Sales patterns amongst categories were mixed last month. Nonstore retail sales rose 0.7% (9.3% y/y) after a 1.5% gain. General merchandise store sales nudged 0.1% higher (4.6% y/y) after a 1.0% strengthening. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.4% (4.1% y/y) and reversed July's decline. Gasoline station sales surged 1.7% (20.3% y/y), with higher prices, following a 0.8% gain. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales rose 0.2% (-4.0% y/y) after four months of decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales were fairly steady (2.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
To the downside, clothing & accessory store sales declined 1.7% in August (+6.2% y/y) following a 2.2% rise. Also weak were sales of furniture & home furnishing stores which fell 0.3% (+3.9% y/y) following no change.
Sales of nondiscretionary items also were mixed last month. Food & beverages store sales held steady (4.9% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.5% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.3% improvement.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales gained 0.2% (10.1% y/y) after three months of strong increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
Excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 20.3 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |