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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 14, 2018
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (6.6% y/y) during August following a 0.7% July gain, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales increased 0.3% (7.3% y/y) after a 0.9% rise, revised from 0.6%. A 0.5% gain had been expected. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales increased 0.1% in August (5.3% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Sales patterns amongst categories were mixed last month. Nonstore retail sales rose 0.7% (9.3% y/y) after a 1.5% gain. General merchandise store sales nudged 0.1% higher (4.6% y/y) after a 1.0% strengthening. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.4% (4.1% y/y) and reversed July's decline. Gasoline station sales surged 1.7% (20.3% y/y), with higher prices, following a 0.8% gain. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales rose 0.2% (-4.0% y/y) after four months of decline. Building materials & garden equipment store sales were fairly steady (2.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
To the downside, clothing & accessory store sales declined 1.7% in August (+6.2% y/y) following a 2.2% rise. Also weak were sales of furniture & home furnishing stores which fell 0.3% (+3.9% y/y) following no change.
Sales of nondiscretionary items also were mixed last month. Food & beverages store sales held steady (4.9% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.5% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.3% improvement.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales gained 0.2% (10.1% y/y) after three months of strong increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
Excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 20.3 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |