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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2018
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate during July held steady m/m at a record 4.4%. It remained higher than the 4.1% rate twelve months earlier. (The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level.) The hiring rate held at 3.8%, which was slightly below the eleven-year high of 3.9% in May. The JOLTS data begin in 2000.
The private-sector job openings rate held at a record 4.7% in July. The rate in leisure & hospitality increased to 5.8% and in professional & business services, it rose to 5.4%. In education & health services, the rate eased to 5.0% while in trade, transportation & utilities it slipped to 4.5%. The rate in manufacturing rose to 3.8% but held steady in construction at 3.6%. In government, the job openings rate eased to 2.7%, but remained up from the 1.2% low in 2009.
The level of job openings increased 1.7% (11.9% y/y) following a 2.4% June gain. Private-sector openings rose 2.2% (11.3% y/y) to 6.316 million. Job openings in the factory sector rose 29.4% y/y and increased 7.1% y/y in construction. In trade, transportation & utilities, openings rose 14.0% y/y and in leisure & hospitality, openings gained 21.1% y/y. Openings in education & health services increased 7.9% y/y and in professional & business services, they rose 11.7% y/y. Government sector job openings increased 17.8% y/y.
The private-sector hiring rate in July held m/m at 4.2%, down from its eleven-year high of 4.3% reached in May. The rate rose in leisure & hospitality to 6.5%. In professional & business services, it held steady at 5.5% and in construction, it rose to 5.2%. In education & health services, the rate eased to 2.9%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities rose to 4.1% and in manufacturing, to 3.1%. The hiring rate in government slipped to 1.5%.
Total hiring rose a lessened 3.3% y/y in July. Hiring in the private sector increased 3.4% y/y as factory sector hiring strengthened 15.9% y/y and construction sector employment increased 6.2% y/y. Showing lesser improvement was educational & health services jobs (3.6% y/y) and leisure & hospitality hiring which posted a 3.3% y/y rise. Professional & business employment fell 3.8% y/y.
The overall job separations rate remained at 3.7% in July. It was steady at 4.1% in the private sector and equaled the expansion high. The level of overall separations increased a lessened 2.4% y/y. They rose 16.5% y/y in financial activities, just 4.2% y/y in manufacturing and 3.9% in leisure & hospitality. Job separations fell 6.5% y/y in professional & business services and 5.7% y/y in construction.
The level of layoffs declined 11.9% y/y, keeping the 1.1% layoff rate down from a 2015 high of 1.4%. In the private sector, the layoff rate was steady at 1.2%, but it was only 0.9% in manufacturing and 0.7% in financial activities. The government sector layoff rate remained low at 0.4%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul'17 | Jul'16 | Jul'15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
Total (000s) | 6,939 | 6,822 | 6,659 | 6,202 | 5,982 | 5,863 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,679 | 5,677 | 5,747 | 5,498 | 5,324 | 5,111 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,602 | 1,652 | 1,618 | 1,816 | 1,600 | 1,662 |