Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 11, 2018
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose to a record high of 108.8 during August. The index level was 3.3% higher than 12 months earlier.
A record 34% of respondents indicated that now was a good time to expand the business. A still-high thirty-four expected the economy to improve and a firm 26% expected higher real sales. A higher 33% planned to make capital expenditures, up from 28% during all of last year.
Labor market readings remained firm. A record 26% of businesses were planning to increase employment. Meanwhile, a higher 55% indicated that there were few or no qualified candidates for job openings.
Pricing pressure remained strong. A net 17% of firms were raising average selling prices in August, roughly double the percentage twelve months earlier. A steady 24% of firms were planning to raise prices, remaining near the ten-year high. Thirty-two percent of firms increased worker compensation, up from one percent during all of 2009. Twenty-one of businesses were planning to raise compensation, up from 15% last August.
Credit was readily available. A slightly higher five percent of businesses reported difficulties in obtaining credit, up from two percent in June. These readings were near the lowest level of the economic expansion.
This survey inquires about problems facing small business. The most pressing problem in August continued to be labor quality as a record 25% reported problems. A higher eight percent of firms reported the cost of labor as the most significant problem. Government requirements were worrisome to a lower 13% of respondents, down from 22% in 2015. Fifteen percent indicated that taxes were the largest problem, down from a December 2014 high of 27%. Competition from large businesses fell to eight percent and insurance costs/availability worried a lessened 9%. Poor sales remained at a near-record low of 7% while financial & interest rate problems remained a negligible problem for just two percent of respondents. Price inflation held steady as two percent reported it as the biggest problem.
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The index is based 1986=100. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.
The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Federation of Independent Business (SA, Net % of Firms) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 108.8 | 107.9 | 107.2 | 105.3 | 104.9 | 95.3 | 96.1 |
Firms Expecting Economy to Improve | 34 | 35 | 33 | 37 | 39 | -5 | -5 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales | 26 | 29 | 26 | 27 | 23 | 5 | 8 |
Firms Reporting Now Is a Good Time to Expand the Business | 34 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 23 | 10 | 12 |
Firms Planning to Increase Employment | 26 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 12 |
Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants for Job Openings (%) | 55 | 52 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 46 | 46 |
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder to Get | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Firms Raising Average Selling Prices | 17 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Firms Raising Worker Compensation | 32 | 32 | 31 | 28 | 27 | 24 | 23 |