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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 6, 2018
Manufacturers' orders fell 0.8% (+9.0% y/y) during July following a 0.6% June increase, revised from 0.7%. Manufacturing shipments held steady (8.1% y/y) in July after a 1.0% June increase.
Durable goods orders declined 1.7% (+9.4% y/y), which was unrevised from last month's advance report. The decline followed a 0.9% June increase. Orders for transportation equipment fell 5.2% (+12.0% y/y) due to a one-third drop in nondefense aircraft orders, while motor vehicle & parts orders rose 1.3% (7.2% y/y). Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.2% (8.4% y/y). Machinery orders increased 0.8% (6.3% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.9% (8.0% y/y) and electrical equipment bookings eased 0.2% (+9.2% y/y).
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, gained 0.2% (8.6% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Shipments from petroleum refineries increased 0.4% (33.4% y/y) with higher prices. Food product shipments improved 0.2% (0.7% y/y) after two months of decline. Basic chemical shipments slipped 0.2% (+5.8% y/y) and paper product shipments gained 0.5% (6.3% y/y). Shipments of apparel fell 1.8% (+4.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (+7.6% y/y) in July after a 1.7% jump. Shipments of transportation products declined 1.7% (+5.5% y/y). Shipments of civilian aircraft backpedaled 25.4% (-26.1% y/y) and automobile shipments fell 2.4% (-9.8% y/y). Shipments outside of the transportation sector increased 0.4% (8.6% y/y) for a second straight month. Machinery shipments improved 0.6% (7.9% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments jumped 1.4% (7.4% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance shipments rose 0.5% (6.6% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods held steady (3.9% y/y), following five straight monthly increases. Transportation equipment backlogs eased 0.1% (+3.3% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (5.4% y/y) following three months of strong increase. Machinery backlogs improved 0.4% (2.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of computer & electronic products increased 0.3% (3.6% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 0.9% (3.5% y/y), up for the fifth straight month.
Inventories of manufactured products surged 0.8% (5.6% y/y), the strongest increase since December. Durable goods inventories improved 1.3% (5.5% y/y). Transportation product inventories jumped 3.5% (5.3% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories rose 0.2% (5.7% y/y). Machinery sector inventories declined 0.2% (+4.1% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories fell 0.5% (+2.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories improved 0.2% (5.9% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.2% (4.1% y/y) but food product inventories decline 0.6% (-0.4% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.9% and by 29.1% y/y with higher prices.
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 9.0 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
Shipments | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |