Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 6, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 203,000 (-31.2% y/y) during the week ended September 1 from an unrevised 213,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level since December 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 215,000 applications. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 209,500, also a 49-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending August 25, continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 1.707 million (-11.9% y/y from the slightly upwardly revised 1.710 million a week earlier. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.719 million, the lowest level since late-1973.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended August 25, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), Nebraska (0.35%), Indiana (0.44%), North Dakota (0.44%) and North Carolina (0.47%). The highest rates were in Rhode Island (1.93%), Pennsylvania (1.98%), Connecticut (2.25%) and New Jersey (2.47%). Among the largest states by population, the rate was 1.81% in California (this was also the fifth highest rate in the country), 1.00% in Texas, 1.51% in New York, and 0.52% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/01/18 | 08/25/18 | 08/18/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 203 | 213 | 210 | -31.2 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,707 | 1,710 | -11.9 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |