Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 27, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index fell to 30.9 during August after easing to 32.3 in July. Despite these declines, the index remained up sharply from its March low.
Movement amongst the sub-series was mixed last month. The growth rate of new orders improved, but production, shipments and delivery times declined. On the labor front, employment held steady at the highest level of the expansion, but the workweek reading eased. The capital expenditures reading slipped m/m but was near the record high.
The index for finished goods prices received declined sharply to the lowest level in twelve months. The raw materials price measure also weakened. The wages & benefits index increased to the expansion high. The figure has doubled in the last nine months.
The index of expected business conditions in six months slipped m/m. Movement amongst the sub-series was mixed. Expected new orders growth improved, but the future production and unfilled orders readings declined. The future shipments series has been steady for several months. The future capital expenditures reading continued to strengthen.
On the labor front, the future employment reading increased to the highest level since January. Future hours worked, however, weakened. Future wages & benefits declined sharply to the lowest level since December.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 30.9 | 32.3 | 36.5 | 17.5 | 20.6 | -8.9 | -12.5 |
Production | 29.3 | 29.4 | 23.3 | 21.0 | 20.2 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 19.9 | 17.0 | 22.2 | 13.5 | 11.4 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Employment | 28.9 | 28.9 | 23.9 | 10.3 | 11.4 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 33.4 | 32.4 | 31.4 | 27.3 | 22.2 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 15.3 | 22.9 | 26.2 | 10.8 | 12.7 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 34.7 | 36.2 | 35.9 | 29.0 | 34.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 46.6 | 50.6 | 47.9 | 43.2 | 46.8 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 40.4 | 35.1 | 37.7 | 37.0 | 37.7 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Employment | 42.2 | 39.9 | 39.8 | 30.6 | 35.2 | 16.8 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 45.5 | 53.2 | 53.2 | 44.4 | 43.4 | 34.8 | 33.2 |