Recent Updates
- Turkey: Domestic PPI, Comsumer Price Index (Feb)
- Mexico: Advanced Auto Sales (Feb)
- Ireland: Unemployment (Feb)
- Euro area: PPI (Jan)
- Iraq: Public Internal Debt (Jan-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
NABE Projects Firm Growth in 2022, as in 2021
The NABE expects 4.0% real GDP growth in 2022 following a 4.8% rise during 2021...
U.S. Construction Spending Strengthens Again in January
Building activity continues to strengthen...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 27, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to 0.13 during July from 0.48 in June. The decline came after two months of great variability. The three-month moving average fell to 0.05, its lowest level since September of last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the component series was mostly negative during July. The Production & Income reading fell to 0.05 following two months of heightened variability caused by changing utility output. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure slipped to 0.03 and has been fairly weak for several months. The Personal Consumption & Housing indicator eased to -0.07 and was down sharply versus its recent high during March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose modestly to 0.12. after two months of decline.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (percent) | 0.13 | 0.48 | -0.46 | -0.18 | 0.13 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.07 | -- | -- | -- |
Production & Income | 0.05 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.05 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.00 | -0.04 |