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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 27, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to 0.13 during July from 0.48 in June. The decline came after two months of great variability. The three-month moving average fell to 0.05, its lowest level since September of last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the component series was mostly negative during July. The Production & Income reading fell to 0.05 following two months of heightened variability caused by changing utility output. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure slipped to 0.03 and has been fairly weak for several months. The Personal Consumption & Housing indicator eased to -0.07 and was down sharply versus its recent high during March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose modestly to 0.12. after two months of decline.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (percent) | 0.13 | 0.48 | -0.46 | -0.18 | 0.13 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.07 | -- | -- | -- |
Production & Income | 0.05 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.05 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.00 | -0.04 |