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Economy in Brief
Import Prices Continue Their Decline; Both Oil and Nonoil Prices Move Lower
Import prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.5% during January (-1.7% year-on-year)...
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 8.8 during February...
U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December...
U.S. Producer Prices Decline; Core PPI Rises
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% for the second consecutive month in January (+2.0% y/y)...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Back Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 239,000 in the week ended February 9...
by Tom Moeller August 27, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity index fell to 0.13 during July from 0.48 in June. The decline came after two months of great variability. The three-month moving average fell to 0.05, its lowest level since September of last year. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Performance amongst the component series was mostly negative during July. The Production & Income reading fell to 0.05 following two months of heightened variability caused by changing utility output. The Sales, Orders & Inventories figure slipped to 0.03 and has been fairly weak for several months. The Personal Consumption & Housing indicator eased to -0.07 and was down sharply versus its recent high during March. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure rose modestly to 0.12. after two months of decline.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (percent) | 0.13 | 0.48 | -0.46 | -0.18 | 0.13 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.12 | -0.07 | -- | -- | -- |
Production & Income | 0.05 | 0.45 | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.05 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.07 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.00 | -0.04 |