Recent Updates

  • US: New Residential Construction (Oct)
  • Kuwait: PPI (Q3)
  • Israel: IP (Sep)
  • Turkey: Non-Domestic PPI (Oct)
  • Germany: Producer Price Indexes (Oct), Migration (Jun)
  • Taiwan: Export Orders (Oct), External Debt, BOP (Q3)
  • GERMANR: Building Permits by State (Sep)
  • France: Labor Force Survey (Q3), Central Government Negotiable Debt, Imported Raw Materials Prices (Oct)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Is Led by Aircraft
by Tom Moeller  August 24, 2018

New orders for durable goods fell 1.7% (+9.2% y/y) during July following a 0.7% June increase, revised from 1.0%. An unchanged level of orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

A 5.3% decline (+11.8% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment reflected a roughly one-third drop in civilian aircraft orders. It followed a 6.5% rise. Defense aircraft orders also fell by approximately one-third. A 3.5% gain in motor vehicle & parts orders offset some of these declines.

Orders excluding the transportation sector altogether rose 0.2% (8.0% y/y) in July, about the same as during the prior two months.

Nondefense capital goods orders declined 4.6% (+7.9% y/y), pulled lower by the drop in aircraft bookings. Orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4% (8.5% y/y), the strongest increase in three months.

Leading that strength was a 1.1% rise (8.2% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products. Orders for computers & related products jumped 12.6% (-8.9% y/y) after declines in four of the prior five months. Communication equipment orders fell 3.2% (+10.3% y/y) after strong gains during Q2. Machinery orders improved 0.6% (5.8% y/y), also after strength in Q2. A 0.2% dip (+9.1% y/y) in orders for electronic equipment, appliances & components came after a 1.4% jump. Orders for primary metals rose 0.3% (17.95 y/y) while fabricated metal orders held steady (8.0% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (+7.5% y/y) following a 1.6% jump. Shipments excluding the transportation sector gained 0.6% (8.7% y/y) after two increases of roughly 0.4%. Unfilled durable goods orders held steady (3.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Backlogs excluding transportation rose 0.3% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Inventories of durable goods strengthened 1.3% (5.4% y/y) following little change during June. Excluding the transportation sector, however, inventories rose a modest 0.2% (5.5% y/y), the weakest increase since December 2016.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy is the title of today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell and it can be found here.

Durable Goods NAICS Classification Jul Jun May Jul Y/Y 2017 2016 2015
New Orders (SA, % chg) -1.7 0.7 -0.3 9.2 5.4 -1.7 -5.0
  Transportation -5.3 1.8 -1.3 11.8 3.4 -0.7 -6.3
Total Excluding Transportation 0.2 0.1 0.3 8.0 6.5 -2.3 -4.2
  Nondefense Capital Goods -4.6 2.0 -2.3 7.9 9.1 -5.8 -11.8
    Excluding Aircraft 1.4 0.6 0.7 8.5 6.7 -4.5 -5.5
Shipments -0.2 1.6 0.2 7.5 4.0 -2.4 -0.8
Unfilled Orders 0.0 0.3 0.5 3.9 2.0 -1.2 -2.7
Inventories 1.3 -0.0 0.3 5.4 4.6 -3.0 0.9
close
large image