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by Tom Moeller August 24, 2018
New orders for durable goods fell 1.7% (+9.2% y/y) during July following a 0.7% June increase, revised from 1.0%. An unchanged level of orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 5.3% decline (+11.8% y/y) in orders for transportation equipment reflected a roughly one-third drop in civilian aircraft orders. It followed a 6.5% rise. Defense aircraft orders also fell by approximately one-third. A 3.5% gain in motor vehicle & parts orders offset some of these declines.
Orders excluding the transportation sector altogether rose 0.2% (8.0% y/y) in July, about the same as during the prior two months.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 4.6% (+7.9% y/y), pulled lower by the drop in aircraft bookings. Orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4% (8.5% y/y), the strongest increase in three months.
Leading that strength was a 1.1% rise (8.2% y/y) in orders for computers & electronic products. Orders for computers & related products jumped 12.6% (-8.9% y/y) after declines in four of the prior five months. Communication equipment orders fell 3.2% (+10.3% y/y) after strong gains during Q2. Machinery orders improved 0.6% (5.8% y/y), also after strength in Q2. A 0.2% dip (+9.1% y/y) in orders for electronic equipment, appliances & components came after a 1.4% jump. Orders for primary metals rose 0.3% (17.95 y/y) while fabricated metal orders held steady (8.0% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (+7.5% y/y) following a 1.6% jump. Shipments excluding the transportation sector gained 0.6% (8.7% y/y) after two increases of roughly 0.4%. Unfilled durable goods orders held steady (3.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Backlogs excluding transportation rose 0.3% (5.4% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Inventories of durable goods strengthened 1.3% (5.4% y/y) following little change during June. Excluding the transportation sector, however, inventories rose a modest 0.2% (5.5% y/y), the weakest increase since December 2016.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy is the title of today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell and it can be found here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 9.2 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -5.0 |
| Transportation | -5.3 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 11.8 | 3.4 | -0.7 | -6.3 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -4.6 | 2.0 | -2.3 | 7.9 | 9.1 | -5.8 | -11.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 6.7 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | 1.3 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
