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Economy in Brief
U.S. Durable Goods Orders' December Gain Disappoints
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods increased 0.2% during December (1.4% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Tumble
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 4.1% w/w (+39.7% y/y) in the weekend January 22...
German Consumer Confidence in February Is Projected Much Lower
The forward-looking GfK consumer confidence/climate gauge for February has stumbled for the fourth month in a row...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers During January
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 2.5% (-31.5% y/y) to 89.3 during January...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Rose Further in November
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.0% m/m in November...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 23, 2018
The market for new homes varied greatly last month. New single-family home sales declined 1.7% (+12.8% y/y) during July to 627,000 (AR) after a 2.4% June fall to 638,000, revised from 631,000. It remained the lowest level of sales since October and was down from November's high of 712,000. Expectations had been for 648,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales are calculated when contracts are closed and are tabulated by the National Association of Realtors.
The median price of a new home strengthened 6.0% to $328,700 (-4.2% y/y) from $310,000, revised from $302,100. It was the highest price since March. The average price of a new home increased 6.7% (5.9% y/y) to $394,300, the highest price since December.
New home sales were mixed last month throughout the country. Home sales in the Northeast fell by roughly one-half both m/m and y/y to 21,000. In the South, new home sales eased 3.3% (+17.2% y/y) to 355,000, a three-month low. New home sales in the West gained 10.9% (18.5%) to 173,000, a four-month high. In the Midwest sales rose 9.9% (18.2% y/y) to 78,000 and made up most of the decline during June.
The months' supply of homes on the market rose m/m to 5.9, the highest level since August. The median number of months a new home was on the market fell to 3.2, the lowest point since December.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy from Robert S. Kaplan, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 627 | 638 | 654 | 12.8 | 616 | 560 | 502 |
Northeast | 21 | 44 | 33 | -48.8 | 40 | 32 | 25 |
Midwest | 78 | 71 | 84 | 18.2 | 72 | 69 | 61 |
South | 355 | 367 | 386 | 17.2 | 341 | 317 | 286 |
West | 173 | 156 | 151 | 18.5 | 164 | 142 | 130 |
Median Price (NSA, $) | 328,700 | 310,000 | 313,600 | 1.8 | 321,633 | 306,500 | 293,733 |