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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level in Two Years
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 53.0 in June...
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE August 16, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 212,000 during the week ended August 11 from 214,000 the week before, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 215,000 reading. The four-week moving average edged upward to 215,500 from 214,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending August 4, continuing claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 1.721 million from 1.760 million a week earlier; that earlier figure was revised upward slightly. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.738 million from 1.746 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ended July 28, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.43%), Indiana (0.45%), North Carolina (0.49%) and North Dakota (0.51%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.48%), Connecticut (2.25%), Pennsylvania (2.06%), California (1.93%) and Alaska (1.91%). Among the largest states by population, the rate was 1.07% in Texas, 1.48% in New York, and 0.57% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/11/18 | 08/04/18 | 07/28/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 212 | 214 | 219 | -10.2 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,721 | 1,760 | -11.8 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |