Recent Updates
- US: GDP (Q1-3rd Estimate), GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Qatar: PPI (May)
- Chile: Employment (May)
- Namibia: Central Bank Survey (May)
- Turkey: Foreign Exchange Position (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten August 15, 2018
Industrial production edged up 0.1% m/m (4.2% y/y) in July but the 0.6% m/m rise initially reported for June was revised up to a sturdy 1.0% m/m increase. The consensus from the Action Economics Survey had looked for a 0.3% m/m gain. The softness in July was due largely to an unexpected 0.5% m/m decline (+2.4% y/y) in utilities production (the third consecutive monthly decline) along with a 0.3% m/m drop (+12.9% y/y) in mining activity. This was only the third monthly decline in mining output in the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was up a solid 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) in July.
The rise in manufacturing output was led by a 0.8% m/m (4.0% y/y) rise in the production of business equipment. This increase was widespread across major categories with output of transit equipment up 1.8% m/m, information processing equipment up 1.1% m/m, and industrial equipment up 0.1%. The production of oil and gas well drilling equipment slumped 3.4% m/m.
Consumer goods production was unchanged (+2.3% y/y) in July with output of consumer durables rising 0.2% m/m while output of nondurables was unchanged. Output of motor vehicles increased a sturdy 1.0% m/m but this was a sharp slowdown from the 7.6% m/m surge in June (which was a rebound from the 8.5% m/m collapse in May).
The production of construction supplies slid 0.1% m/m (+3.9% y/y) in July, their fourth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in July to be 6.0% above year-ago levels.
The drop in utilities output, dictated largely by the weather, was due entirely to a 0.9% m/m decline in electric power generation. Natural gas distribution rose 2.2% m/m. Output of energy slipped 0.2% m/m in July but the growth from a year earlier was a robust 8.3%.
In the special aggregate groupings, production in selected high-technology industries slowed to a still-solid 0.8% m/m increase from the 1.9% m/m jump in June. Non-energy production excluding high-tech advanced a modest 0.2% m/m in July following a 0.8% m/m gain in June. Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos improved 0.2% m/m, the same monthly rise as in June.
Capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.1% in July. This is well off the recession low of 66.7% in 2009 but still meaningfully below the pre-recession peak of 81.0% in 2007. Factory sector capacity utilization improved to 75.9% in July from 75.7% in June.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Consumer Goods | 0.0 | 0.9 | -2.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | 0.8 | 2.2 | -1.9 | 4.0 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
Construction Supplies | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Materials | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Utilities | -0.5 | -0.7 | -2.6 | 2.4 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Mining | -0.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 12.9 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.1 | 78.1 | 77.5 | 76.1 | 76.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
Manufacturing | 75.9 | 75.7 | 75.2 | 74.6 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |