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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen August 9, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance claims decreased to 213,000 during the week ended August 4 from a slightly upwardly revised 219,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 220,000 reading. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 214,250 near the 48-year low of 213,500 reached in May. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending July 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.755 million from the slightly upwardly revised 1.726 million a week earlier. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.745 million from 1.742 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early-May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended July 21, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Nebraska (0.45%), Indiana (0.47%), North Carolina (0.49%) and North Dakota (0.52%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.53%), Connecticut (2.25%), Pennsylvania (2.02%), Rhode Island (1.94%) and Alaska (1.92%). Among the largest states by population the rate was 1.83% in California, 1.08% in Texas, 1.49% in New York, and 0.55% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/04/18 | 07/28/18 | 07/21/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 213 | 219 | 217 | -12.0 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,755 | 1,726 | -10.2 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |