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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls in June to the Lowest Level since May '20
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 55.3 in June...
May JOLTS: Openings, Hiring Slipped, Separations Edged Up
Job openings fell 427,000 in May to 11.254 million...
Euro Area Retail Sales Remain Weak
The graph shows the clear trend of euro area retail sales...
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
Total factory orders rose 1.6% m/m (14.0% y/y) in May...
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 7, 2018
Consumer credit outstanding increased $10.20 billion (4.7% y/y) during June following a $24.27 billion rise in May, revised from $24.56 billion. The $16.0 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the past ten years, there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y gain in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $10.39 billion (4.7% y/y) during June after a $14.67 billion May rise. Federal government borrowing (42% of the total) rose 8.5% y/y. Borrowing from depository institutions (25% of the total) improved 3.9% y/y and finance company balances (18% of the total) fell 2.0% y/y. Credit union loans (13% of the total) strengthened 9.2% y/y.
Revolving consumer credit balances eased $0.18 billion in June (+4.8% y/y) following a $9.59 billion May surge. Balances at depository institutions (88% of the total) increased 7.6% y/y. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) strengthened 9.8% y/y. Finance company holdings (2% of the total) fell 9.8% y/y, while nonfinancial business borrowing (2% of the total) fell 4.0% y/y.
During the second quarter, student loan balances grew a steady 5.8% y/y. Motor vehicle loans rose 3.6% y/y, also about the same as in 2017.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $10.20 bil. | $24.27 bil. | $10.20 bil. | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% |
Nonrevolving | 10.39 | 14.67 | 9.33 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 7.7 |
Revolving | -0.18 | 9.59 | 0.88 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.4 |