Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller August 2, 2018
Initial unemployment insurance claims inched higher to 218,000 during the week ended July 28 from an unrevised 217,000 during the prior week. Claims remained near the lowest level since late-1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 218,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 214,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending July 21, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.724 million from 1.747 million a week earlier, revised from 1.745 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.742 million versus 1.746 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early-May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended July 13, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.46%), Indiana (0.47%), North Carolina (0.49%) and Florida (0.57%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.51%), Connecticut (2.28%), Pennsylvania (2.13%), Alaska (2.02%) and Rhode Island (2.00%). Amongst other large states the rate was 1.91% in California, 1.63% in Illinois, 1.52% in New York, 1.30% in Washington and 1.09% in Texas. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/28/18 | 07/21/18 | 07/14/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 218 | 217 | 208 | -10.3 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,724 | 1,747 | -12.2 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |