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- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller July 31, 2018
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during July increased 0.2% (6.2% y/y) to 127.4 from 127.1, initially reported as 126.4. The July level exceeded expectations for 126.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The level of confidence has been moving sideways since November. The indexes in this report are based on 1985=100. During the past 10 years, there has been a 69% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The present conditions component increased 2.6% (14.1% y/y) to 165.9. It was the highest level since March 2001. The expectations component declined 2.2% (-1.3% y/) to 101.7, the lowest level since December.
Expectations for business conditions improved m/m as 23.1% of respondents thought that conditions would improve, still down from a 26.9% high in March 2017. Income was expected to increase in six months by a still sharply lessened 20.8%, versus the February high of 23.5%. Expectations that there would be more jobs in six months surged m/m to 22.5%, the highest level since early last year.
Jobs were viewed as "plentiful" by an increased 43.1% of respondents in July. Jobs were viewed as "hard to get" by a steady and low 15.0%, the fewest in seventeen years. The net jobs assessment reading increased to +28.1 in July. It remained near the highest level since 2001. Over the past 15 years, this differential has been 96% inversely related to the unemployment rate. The percentage of respondents indicating the business conditions are "good" rose to a 17-year high of 38.0%. The percentage saying business conditions are "bad" declined to a cycle low 10.1%.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months rose m/m to 5.1%, up from last November's 4.5% low. It was the highest reading since October 2015. The percentage expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months held fairly steady at 71.1%, but was up sharply from 67.6% in May of last year. Those looking to buy a home in the next six months fell sharply m/m to 5.1%, the lowest level in two years.
Confidence amongst respondents under age 35 years improved sharply to the highest level since May of last year. For those aged 35-54 years, confidence declined m/m to nearly a one year low. And for those over 55 years of age, confidence has been fairly steady this year near the eighteen-year high.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 127.4 | 127.1 | 128.8 | 6.2 | 120.5 | 99.8 | 98.0 |
Present Situation | 165.9 | 161.7 | 161.2 | 14.1 | 144.8 | 120.3 | 111.7 |
Expectations | 101.7 | 104.0 | 107.2 | -1.3 | 104.3 | 86.1 | 88.8 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | 137.2 | 127.0 | 129.4 | 5.5 | 130.2 | 122.4 | 116.0 |
Aged 35-54 Years | 123.5 | 132.0 | 133.0 | 1.1 | 123.5 | 106.2 | 103.9 |
Over 55 Years | 124.8 | 122.8 | 124.4 | 10.2 | 112.9 | 84.6 | 84.1 |