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Economy in Brief
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edge Upward
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 7 rose to 203,000 (-58.9% y/y)...
U.K. Shows Scatter-Shot IP Trends
Industrial output in the United Kingdom is mixed and convoluted...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 30, 2018
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index declined to 32.3 during July after increasing to 36.5 in June. The latest level remained near the expansion high.
Movement amongst the sub-series was mixed. The growth rate of new orders and delivery times declined. On the labor front, employment increased to the highest level of the recovery, and the workweek series also rose. Wages and benefits improved to almost the recovery high.
The index for finished goods prices received eased, but remained near the expansion high. The raw materials price measure also remained firm. The cost of labor rose as the wages & benefits index increased to the highest point since February.
The index of expected business conditions in six months rose m/m. Movement amongst the sub-series was mixed. The future production series strengthened along with shipments, but orders growth declined. Future employment was stable, after having moved roughly sideways for a year. Future wages & benefits remained near the recovery high.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul'17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | 32.3 | 36.5 | 26.8 | 17.3 | 20.6 | -8.9 | -12.5 |
Production | 29.4 | 23.3 | 35.2 | 23.5 | 20.2 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 17.0 | 22.2 | 26.5 | 13.9 | 11.4 | -7.3 | -11.8 |
Number of Employees | 28.9 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 11.6 | 11.4 | -4.9 | -0.4 |
Wages & Benefits | 32.4 | 31.4 | 24.3 | 21.0 | 22.2 | 17.6 | 16.5 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | 22.9 | 26.2 | 20.5 | 6.0 | 12.7 | -1.6 | -8.5 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 36.2 | 35.9 | 30.0 | 31.3 | 34.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 |
Production | 50.6 | 47.9 | 58.0 | 49.1 | 46.8 | 35.8 | 31.1 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 35.1 | 37.7 | 37.7 | 32.8 | 37.7 | 24.3 | 20.7 |
Number of Employees | 39.9 | 39.8 | 37.6 | 36.2 | 35.2 | 16.8 | 14.7 |
Wages & Benefits | 53.2 | 53.2 | 50.6 | 45.9 | 43.4 | 34.8 | 33.2 |