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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Declines Further in June
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U.S. Producer Prices Fall During July; Core Increase Weakens
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand fell 0.5% during July...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Continue on an Uptrend
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended August 6 rose 14,000 to 262,000...
RICS Survey Points to More U.K. Housing Sector Weakness
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2018
Total business inventories increased 0.4% (4.4% y/y) during May following a 0.3% April increase. Total business sales strengthened 1.4% (8.6% y/y), following a 0.6% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.34. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories increased 0.4% (2.2% y/y) in May, the same as during April. Auto inventories grew 0.9% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Non-auto retail inventories edged 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. General merchandise inventories rose 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after a 1.0% surge. In the department store sector, inventories edged 0.2% higher (-3.2% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Building materials inventories gained 0.7% (6.1% y/y) after a 0.6% increase, while clothing store inventories fell 0.7% (-0.8% y/y), down for the third straight month. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 0.9% (-0.7% y/y), the fourth decline this year. As reported last week, wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (5.9% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Factory sector inventories rose 0.2% (5.2% y/y) following a 0.4% gain.
Retail sales increased 1.1% in May (6.5% y/y) with non-auto sales up 1.2% (7.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Wholesale sector sales increased 2.5% (11.8% y/y) after improving 1.4%. Shipments from the factory sector rose 0.6% (7.3% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio in the retail sector slipped to 1.43 in May, down sharply from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio declined to 1.20, its lowest level since early-2012. The ratio peaked at 1.29 early in 2016. The wholesale sector I/S ratio fell sharply to 1.24, its lowest level since November 2014. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio held steady for the third month at 1.35, its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |