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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2018
Consumers continued spending last month, but at a moderated pace. Total retail sales increased 0.5% during June following a 1.3% May increase, revised from 0.8%. The 6.6% y/y increase was, however, the strongest since February 2012. The latest gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 1.4% increase, revised from 0.9%. The gain also matched expectations. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales held steady last month (+4.9% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
Sales patterns amongst categories were mixed last month. A 1.3% increase (10.2% y/y) in sales of nonstore retailers led the growth in overall retail sales as it followed a 0.4% rise. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.8% (6.2% y/y) after a 2.5% jump. Sales at furniture & home furnishings stores improved 0.6% (4.8% y/y) following 1.4% decline.
Weakening during June by 2.5% (+4.0% y/y) were clothing & accessory store sales as they reversed the 2.9% May rise. Electronics & appliance store sales eased 0.4% (+2.1% y/y) which also reversed the prior month's gain. General merchandise store sales fell 0.8% (+2.3% y/y) after a 1.2% strengthening. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales were off 3.2% (-4.7% y/y) after a 0.9% decline.
Despite a sharp decline in pump prices, gasoline station sales improved 1.0% (21.6% y/y) after a 3.0% rise.
Sales of nondiscretionary items also were mixed last month. Health & personal care product store sales increased 2.2% (6.7% y/y) after three consecutive months of strong increase. Food & beverages store sales, however, eased 0.3% (+3.9% y/y) after four months of modest gain.
Eating out remained in vogue last month as restaurant & drinking establishment sales gained 1.5% (8.0% y/y) following a 2.6% increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 21.6 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
