Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Construction, IP & Capacity Utilization (Dec), JOLTS (Nov), Consumer Sentiment (Prelim-Jan)
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Economy in Brief
Petroleum Drives Import Prices Higher, Uncommon Rounding Issue Causes Larger Decline in Export Prices
Import prices rose 0.3% in December as fuel prices jumped 2.8%...
U.S. Retail Sales Increase Steadily
Total retail sales increased 0.3% (5.8% y/y) during December...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Eases
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index slipped during January...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Strengthens Unexpectedly; Pricing Improves
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index surged to 17.0 during January...
U.S. Business Inventories Slip While Sales Rise
total business inventories decreased 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after October's 0.1% rise...
by Tom Moeller July 16, 2018
Consumers continued spending last month, but at a moderated pace. Total retail sales increased 0.5% during June following a 1.3% May increase, revised from 0.8%. The 6.6% y/y increase was, however, the strongest since February 2012. The latest gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose 0.4% last month after a 1.4% increase, revised from 0.9%. The gain also matched expectations. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales held steady last month (+4.9% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
Sales patterns amongst categories were mixed last month. A 1.3% increase (10.2% y/y) in sales of nonstore retailers led the growth in overall retail sales as it followed a 0.4% rise. Building materials & garden equipment store sales rose 0.8% (6.2% y/y) after a 2.5% jump. Sales at furniture & home furnishings stores improved 0.6% (4.8% y/y) following 1.4% decline.
Weakening during June by 2.5% (+4.0% y/y) were clothing & accessory store sales as they reversed the 2.9% May rise. Electronics & appliance store sales eased 0.4% (+2.1% y/y) which also reversed the prior month's gain. General merchandise store sales fell 0.8% (+2.3% y/y) after a 1.2% strengthening. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales were off 3.2% (-4.7% y/y) after a 0.9% decline.
Despite a sharp decline in pump prices, gasoline station sales improved 1.0% (21.6% y/y) after a 3.0% rise.
Sales of nondiscretionary items also were mixed last month. Health & personal care product store sales increased 2.2% (6.7% y/y) after three consecutive months of strong increase. Food & beverages store sales, however, eased 0.3% (+3.9% y/y) after four months of modest gain.
Eating out remained in vogue last month as restaurant & drinking establishment sales gained 1.5% (8.0% y/y) following a 2.6% increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 21.6 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
