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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 5, 2018
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.8% y/y) during June following a 189,000 May gain, revised from 178,000. A 185,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Gains in employment recently have decelerated. During the last three months, ADP payrolls have grown an average of 179,000, down from 227,000 averaged in the first three months of the year and 185,000 averaged during 2017. During the last ten years, there has been a 95% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private-sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 29,000 (1.0% y/y) in June down from last year's 56,000 average. Medium-sized payrolls gained 80,000 (2.2% y/y) versus 74,000 per month in 2017. Large-sized payrolls improved 69,000 (2.9% y/y) in contrast to an average of 55,000 last year.
Private service-producing payrolls increased 148,000 (1.8% y/y), on a par with increases earlier this year and throughout 2017. Professional & business services payrolls rose a lessened 33,000 (2.5% y/y), but education & health services employment rose an improved 46,000 (2.0% y/y). Employment in the leisure & hospitality sector increased a steady 32,000 (2.1% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs firmed 24,000 (1.1% y/y). Financial activities jobs gained 7,000 (1.5% y/y). Employment in the information sector declined 2,000 (-0.2% y/y), the second monthly decline this year.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 29,000 (2.3% y/y), down from an average 51,000 earlier in the year. The 13,000 increase (3.1% y/y) in construction sector payrolls was slightly slower than averaged last year. Jobs in the factory sector rose a fairly steady 12,000 (1.6% y/y). Higher oil prices strengthened job growth in the natural resource & mining sector by 5,000 (6.7% y/y) and compared to negative readings in 2016.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 177 | 189 | 170 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 29 | 46 | 50 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Medium Payroll (50-499) | 80 | 90 | 73 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 69 | 53 | 47 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
Goods-Producing | 29 | 49 | 37 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
Construction | 13 | 26 | 15 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
Manufacturing | 12 | 16 | 14 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
Service-Producing | 148 | 140 | 133 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |