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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 3, 2018
Business activity in the factory sector is humming. Manufacturers' orders increased 0.4% during May (9.2% y/y) following a 0.4% April decline, revised from -0.8%. Manufacturing shipments rose 0.6% (7.3% y/y) after a 0.1% April gain.
Durable goods orders eased 0.4% during May (+9.4% y/y), revised from -0.6% in last month's advance report. The decline followed a 1.0% April fall. Orders for transportation equipment were off 1.1% in May (+12.1% y/y) due to a 7.0% decline in civilian aircraft bookings. Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.7% (8.6% y/y). Machinery orders increased 1.2% (4.2% y/y) following a 1.7% rise, earlier reported as 0.7% decline. Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+8.2% y/y) following two months of sharp increase.
Shipments of durable goods were unchanged (5.7% y/y) in May after easing slightly in April. Shipments of transportation products fell 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) reflecting a 6.1% decline (-12.9% y/y) in automobile shipments. Light truck shipments also were off by 9.6% (+6.0% y/y). Shipments of civilian aircraft rebounded 22.5% (1.6% y/y) after a 27.1% decline. Machinery shipments improved 0.7% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments increased 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders because nondurables are shipped when ordered, gained 1.1% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Petroleum shipments increased 3.7% (37.5% y/y) with higher prices. Food products held fairly steady (1.8% y/y). Basic chemical shipments increased 0.9% (5.7% y/y) and paper product shipments gained 0.6% (5.9% y/y). Textile product shipments fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Transportation equipment backlogs gained 0.5% (4.2% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.6% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Machinery backlogs improved 0.4% (3.7% y/y), about as the did after an upwardly revised 0.3% April rise. Unfilled orders of computer & electronic products increased 0.3% (2.8% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the fourth straight month of moderate increase.
Inventories of manufactured products gained 0.2% (5.2% y/y) and have been rising since late-2016. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (5.1% y/y). Transportation product inventories gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories inched 0.1% higher (5.6% y/y), the weakest result in a year. Machinery sector inventories were fairly steady (5.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were stable (5.3% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.1% (2.9% y/y) and food product inventories eased 0.5% (+0.5% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.3% (27.4% y/y).
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
Shipments | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |