Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 3, 2018
Business activity in the factory sector is humming. Manufacturers' orders increased 0.4% during May (9.2% y/y) following a 0.4% April decline, revised from -0.8%. Manufacturing shipments rose 0.6% (7.3% y/y) after a 0.1% April gain.
Durable goods orders eased 0.4% during May (+9.4% y/y), revised from -0.6% in last month's advance report. The decline followed a 1.0% April fall. Orders for transportation equipment were off 1.1% in May (+12.1% y/y) due to a 7.0% decline in civilian aircraft bookings. Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.7% (8.6% y/y). Machinery orders increased 1.2% (4.2% y/y) following a 1.7% rise, earlier reported as 0.7% decline. Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+8.2% y/y) following two months of sharp increase.
Shipments of durable goods were unchanged (5.7% y/y) in May after easing slightly in April. Shipments of transportation products fell 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) reflecting a 6.1% decline (-12.9% y/y) in automobile shipments. Light truck shipments also were off by 9.6% (+6.0% y/y). Shipments of civilian aircraft rebounded 22.5% (1.6% y/y) after a 27.1% decline. Machinery shipments improved 0.7% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments increased 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders because nondurables are shipped when ordered, gained 1.1% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Petroleum shipments increased 3.7% (37.5% y/y) with higher prices. Food products held fairly steady (1.8% y/y). Basic chemical shipments increased 0.9% (5.7% y/y) and paper product shipments gained 0.6% (5.9% y/y). Textile product shipments fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Transportation equipment backlogs gained 0.5% (4.2% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.6% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Machinery backlogs improved 0.4% (3.7% y/y), about as the did after an upwardly revised 0.3% April rise. Unfilled orders of computer & electronic products increased 0.3% (2.8% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the fourth straight month of moderate increase.
Inventories of manufactured products gained 0.2% (5.2% y/y) and have been rising since late-2016. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (5.1% y/y). Transportation product inventories gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories inched 0.1% higher (5.6% y/y), the weakest result in a year. Machinery sector inventories were fairly steady (5.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were stable (5.3% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.1% (2.9% y/y) and food product inventories eased 0.5% (+0.5% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.3% (27.4% y/y).
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
Shipments | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |