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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 3, 2018
Business activity in the factory sector is humming. Manufacturers' orders increased 0.4% during May (9.2% y/y) following a 0.4% April decline, revised from -0.8%. Manufacturing shipments rose 0.6% (7.3% y/y) after a 0.1% April gain.
Durable goods orders eased 0.4% during May (+9.4% y/y), revised from -0.6% in last month's advance report. The decline followed a 1.0% April fall. Orders for transportation equipment were off 1.1% in May (+12.1% y/y) due to a 7.0% decline in civilian aircraft bookings. Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.7% (8.6% y/y). Machinery orders increased 1.2% (4.2% y/y) following a 1.7% rise, earlier reported as 0.7% decline. Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+8.2% y/y) following two months of sharp increase.
Shipments of durable goods were unchanged (5.7% y/y) in May after easing slightly in April. Shipments of transportation products fell 0.6% (+2.2% y/y) reflecting a 6.1% decline (-12.9% y/y) in automobile shipments. Light truck shipments also were off by 9.6% (+6.0% y/y). Shipments of civilian aircraft rebounded 22.5% (1.6% y/y) after a 27.1% decline. Machinery shipments improved 0.7% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments increased 0.4% (6.1% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders because nondurables are shipped when ordered, gained 1.1% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Petroleum shipments increased 3.7% (37.5% y/y) with higher prices. Food products held fairly steady (1.8% y/y). Basic chemical shipments increased 0.9% (5.7% y/y) and paper product shipments gained 0.6% (5.9% y/y). Textile product shipments fell 0.3% (+6.4% y/y).
Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y), the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Transportation equipment backlogs gained 0.5% (4.2% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.6% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.7% increase. Machinery backlogs improved 0.4% (3.7% y/y), about as the did after an upwardly revised 0.3% April rise. Unfilled orders of computer & electronic products increased 0.3% (2.8% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y), the fourth straight month of moderate increase.
Inventories of manufactured products gained 0.2% (5.2% y/y) and have been rising since late-2016. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (5.1% y/y). Transportation product inventories gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories inched 0.1% higher (5.6% y/y), the weakest result in a year. Machinery sector inventories were fairly steady (5.2% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories were stable (5.3% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.1% (2.9% y/y) and food product inventories eased 0.5% (+0.5% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.3% (27.4% y/y).
All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 0.4 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 9.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 | -8.2 |
Shipments | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 7.3 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
Inventories | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |