Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE June 28, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 227,000 during the week ended June 23, an increase of 9,000 from the 218,000 of the prior week; that earlier figure was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 220,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 222,000, barely different from the 221,000 of the week before. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending June 16, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.705 million from 1.726 million, revised from 1.723 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.720 million, down slightly from 1.723 million in the June 9 week and again the lowest since December 8, 1973.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.2% for a seventh consecutive week.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended June 9, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Nebraska (0.45%), Indiana and North Carolina (0.46%), Florida (0.48%) and Utah (0.49%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.69%), California (1.85%), Connecticut (1.87%), New Jersey (1.98%) and Alaska (2.33%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 06/23/18 | 06/16/18 | 06/09/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 227 | 218 | 221 | -6.6 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,705 | 1,726 | -12.6 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |