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by Tom Moeller June 27, 2018
New orders for durable goods fell 0.6% during May (+9.2% y/y) following a 1.0% April decline, revised from -1.7%. A 0.7% drop had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last three months, orders have risen at a 4.5% annual rate, down from the 13.8% pace as of February.
A 1.0% decline (+12.1% y/y) in transportation equipment orders weakened the overall orders figure as it followed a 6.1% April shortfall. Aircraft & parts orders declined 1.4% following a 24.5% drop. Orders for motor vehicles and parts also were weak and fell 4.2% (+1.2% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders fell 0.3% (+7.8% y/y) following a 1.9% gain, revised from 0.9%. During the last three months these orders have risen at an 8.6% annual rate.
Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.0% (+10.5% y/y) after a 6.5% April decline. Orders excluding aircraft eased 0.2% (+6.1% y/y) after a 2.3% gain. Defense capital goods orders increased 15.1% (41.3% y/y) following an 8.8% rise.
Within the other durable goods sectors, electrical equipment bookings fell 1.5% (+5.2% y/y) and followed three months of strong increase. Fabricated metals orders were off 1.2% (+10.8% y/y) following a 3.3% gain. Orders for primary metals slipped 0.4% (+18.1% y/y), also following three months of material improvement. Computer & electronic equipment orders slipped 0.1% (+8.3% y/y) following a 1.9% rise. Orders for computers & related products, however, declined 1.1% (-12.7% y/y) after a 5.9% rise. Machinery orders improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.7% rise.
Shipments of durable goods eased slightly (+5.6% y/y) following stability in April. Shipments excluding transportation equipment were little changed (7.4% y/y). Unfilled durable orders rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Backlogs excluding the transportation sector gained 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (5.0% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories outside of the transportation sector rose 0.2% (5.7% y/y), the weakest increase since December 2016.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -0.6 | -1.0 | 2.7 | 9.2 | 5.4 | -1.7 | -4.6 |
| Transportation | -1.0 | -6.1 | 6.9 | 12.1 | 3.4 | -0.7 | -6.3 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 7.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 | -4.2 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.0 | -6.5 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 | -11.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 2.3 | -1.0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 4.0 | -2.4 | -0.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 4.6 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
