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Economy in Brief

EMU and Japan; EMU Flash PMIs Make Small Recovery
by Robert Brusca  June 22, 2018

PMIs in June in the EMU area showed some respite from the steady decline in recent months. Services PMIs showed some recovery as manufacturing has continued to slip. The gain in services has been enough to boost the overall PMI gauge.

The rebound in June is limited and weak. It is confined to services. But the EMU, Germany and France each show a services PMI level in June above their respective three-month averages. Manufacturing is lower in these three jurisdictions in June and well below its respective three-month averages.

Still, the standings of these various PMI gauges remain moderate-to-weak. The EMU composite PMI has a 70th percentile standing with manufacturing at a 66th percentile standing and services at a 79th percentile standing. These are firm but moderate readings.

Germany, the usual strong economy in the EMU, has a composite PMI with a very low 27th percentile standing with services at a 29th percentile standing. German manufacturing has a 64th percentile standing.

France has a PMI standing at its 72nd percentile with manufacturing at its 66th percentile and services at the 75th percentile.

Japan's manufacturing gauge rose to 53.1 in June from 52.8 in May with a 79th percentile standing. Japan's June PMI level is above all of its period averages of three-month, six-month and 12-month.

Europe's readings continue to express growth but lack strength. Now we will see what the trade war does to them as the EU restrictions on U.S. imports kick in. We will have to see how the countermeasures emerge and if the trade war escalates. This week U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that there would have to be more environmental pain before the U.S. would get the trade concessions it wants.

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