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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 15, 2018
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May following a 0.9% April rise, revised from 0.7%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory sector production declined 0.7% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed April's 0.6% gain, revised from 0.5%. Utility output strengthened 1.1% (4.0% y/y) after a 3.2% increase. Mining production improved 1.8% (12.5% y/y) following a 1.0% improvement.
The surprising decline in production partially reflected a 1.0% fall (+1.5% y/y) in consumer goods output which reversed the prior month's increase. Durable consumer goods production declined 3.0% (0.0% y/y) after a 0.8% fall. Automotive product output declined 5.5% (-1.5% y/y) following a 1.9% shortfall. Computer, video & related production improved 0.8% (4.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Appliance, furniture & carpeting production fell 1.2% (-1.5% y/y) and countered the prior month's 1.7% rise. Nondurable consumer goods production fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. Energy product output weakened 1.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 3.7% increase. Apparel production declined 1.9% (0.0% y/y) after a 2.4% gain. Paper product output weakened 1.1% (-2.2% y/y) after a 0.8% increase. Food & tobacco production fell 0.3% (3.1% y/y) following a 1.1% improvement. Working the other way, chemical product production rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% gain.
Production of business equipment declined 1.1% last month (+1.0% y/y) and reversed April's 1.1% rise. Transit equipment production fell 3.5% (-2.9% y/y) following a 0.3% dip. Production of information processing equipment slipped 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) following four straight months of strong increase. Industrial equipment & other equipment production fell 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) after a 1.8% rise.
Construction supplies output notched 0.1% higher (3.6% y/y) after a 0.5% increase.
Production of materials improved 0.5% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.9% increase. Energy product materials output increased 2.0% (11.0% y/y) after two months of roughly 1.2% gain. Durable goods materials output fell 0.8% (+2.7% y/y) following a 0.5% rise and nondurable goods materials held steady (0.9% y/y) following a 0.9% gain.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of selected high-technology industries rose 0.2% (6.3% y/y) following a 1.8% jump. Nonenergy production excluding high-tech retreated 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed a 0.6% rise. Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos eased 0.2% (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.8% strengthening.
Capacity utilization eased to 77.9% from its three-year high of 78.1%. Factory sector capacity utilization declined to 75.3%, the lowest level since January. Manufacturing sector capacity increased 1.0% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | -0.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
Manufacturing | -0.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
Consumer Goods | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Business Equipment | -1.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.0 |
Construction Supplies | 0.1 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Materials | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
Utilities | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
Mining | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 6.4 | -9.7 | -3.4 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.9 | 78.1 | 77.5 | 76.2 | 78.1 | 75.4 | 77.3 |
Manufacturing | 75.3 | 75.9 | 75.5 | 74.8 | 74.8 | 74.6 | 75.8 |